A week ago gold looked as though it needed just a little more weakness to set the stage for a potentially powerful rally. At the time, I specifically identified a promising hidden-pivot support in the Gold Bugs Index (HUI), and said it would have to be touched before bullion took off. The pivot lies at 172.69, but what we got instead was a so-far pathetic bounce from 175.32. This is not a healthy sign. Although it would be bullish as all get-out if this uptrend appeared capable of surpassing the 203.69 high recorded on April 1, the rally instead looks like it’s about to roll over without having exceeded a single prior peak on the daily chart.
Bottom line, if a buying opportunity still awaits, we will have to be patient to take advantage of it. Gold may eke out a little more upside in the meantime, but if so it won’t be a rally we should trust. In any event, let’s keep an eye on a hidden-pivot resistance at 186.94, since that’s where the trend is likely to fizzle if it’s going to. I’ll also stipulate that a two-day close above it would portend additional upside to at least 192.24 (a hidden pivot). I’d be tempted to try shorting there, albeit with a very tight stop. The rally could end at that price, but even if not, it represents a swing-trade opportunity that we could ill afford to miss in a market as turgid as this one.
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