Tuesday, February 6, 2007

‘Perfect Storm’ In Real Estate?

– Posted in: Current Touts

We were offering shares of D.R. Horton short yesterday when the stock turned weak, denying us the fat pitch we'd hoped would start the day. Let's keep at it, though, since there evidently are still a few bulls around to drive the stock higher once this pullback has run its course. How do we know there are bulls, even though the housing market is looking worse than it's looked in more than 30 years? Well, for one, there are always bound to be legions of investors who believe that it is darkest before the dawn. And for two, no less an authority than The Wall Street Journal assures us that any negatives are outweighed by positives. Or am I misinterpreting the lead on this story, from the front page of yesterday's edition: 'Amid brightening hopes that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing, some economists are zeroing in on a piece of data that could augur badly for the consensus view: the homeowner vacancy rate.' Clearly, the Journal is trying to emphasize the good over the bad here. To wit, it is only 'some' economists who feel other than hopeful, and it is but one eensy-teensy little 'piece of data' that has caused them to nitpick the bullish case. Moreover, these dour nitpickers have in no way refuted the 'consensus' view; rather they have merely held up to the light a 'piece of data' that 'could augur badly' for residential real estate. Biggest Glut in Decades As a wordsmith and sometimes-obfuscator of inconvenient facts myself, I can appreciate the pains to which the reporter, one Michael Corkery, has gone to please his editors, the Journal's advertisers, and all others with a vested interest in the status quo. But make no mistake, the actual 'piece of data' would appear quite sufficient to