Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Bulls Hang On By a Thread

– Posted in: Current Touts

We broke ranks with the permabears decisively last summer, when the Dow Industrials were trading nearly two thousand points beneath a 13045 target I projected at that time. Ever since, and until yesterday, it had been more than just a little satisfying to watch the Indoos climb relentlessly higher, even as I continued to tell you that the stock market stank to high heaven. I simply pinched my nose and closed my eyes, advised my subscribers to do the same, and up, up, up we went. In the 1980s, before I acquired from my mentor Ira Tunik the rudiments of what I came to call the Hidden Pivot method, I used to marvel at the way Richard Russell, the grey eminence of guru-dom, could be bullish on the stock market even when he obviously thought it stank worse than a pile of rotting fish.. He had his proprietary Primary Trend Index to keep him honest, and it obviously worked. And while there may have been many good reasons for him and the rest of us to hate stocks at times during the 1980s, as long as the PTI was headed higher Russell stuck to his discipline, never fighting the tape. Understanding Perversity So it is with Hidden Pivots: As long as bullish impulse legs keep manifesting themselves on the lesser charts, we can continue to ride the uptrends blithely to their targets. But ' and this is a crucial caveat -- we can not afford to become married to those targets, since they are not absolutes but rather mere benchmarks that help us make plain sense of an otherwise inscrutable and often perversely illogical stock market. So how does the foregoing apply to the current picture? Although yesterday's wildly vicious plunge should have sufficed to wipe the smirk from permabulls'