Speaking as a gold bug with a gimlet eye, it may be a good time to ratchet down our expectations, seeing the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. Let's start with the XAU chart below, which I recently trotted out in support of a 5.5% rally forecast. When you look at the chart, do you see a bullish impulse leg that has rocketed past no fewer than four prior 'external' peaks? Hard to miss it, for sure. It's what I saw a few days ago when I predicted even bigger and better things ahead. But there is another Hidden Pivot interpretation of this chart ' one that should smack the eye of the Gloomy Gus who dwells in the heart of each and every gold bug. (Click on chart to enlarge) What Gloomy Gus would notice first is not the initially promising trajectory of the rally begun a few weeks ago, but rather the subtle failure of that rally more recently to surpass the April 20 high, 148.50. In Hidden Pivot terms, this tiny 'look-to-the-left' peak looms large in any technical discussion of gold's prospects over the near term. The rally was not lacking in ebullience, for sure. What it manifestly lacked, however, was the guts to take on just one more 'easy' peak before pausing for breath. This has subtle importance for Hidden Pivot seminar grads, who may be quicker than I to recognize the problem because it receives greater emphasis in class than I sometimes bring to my own analysis. We dwell on XAU's 'look-to-the-left' failure in retrospect, having bailed out of a long position in Newmont Wednesday morning. We did so in haste, posting the following to the Rick's Picks Touts section as the Denver-based mining giant was beginning to do what it does best ' i.e.,
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