Crude oil at $100 a barrel? Someone wanted to know whether we were joking when we broached the possibility yesterday in the Rick's Picks chat room. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, prospects over the next few months are not quite that scary, since the highest target I can predict right now with any confidence is a 'mere' 88.68. Significantly higher projections are of course possible, but we prefer to forecast stocks and commodities one target at a time. This helps us anchor our predictions firmly in conservative technical logic, as opposed to simply fabricating pie-in-the-sky numbers that some of our subscribers might be pleased to hear. On that basis, incidentally, Gold has a 40% shot at $907 per ounce over the next 4-5 months, or even $959; however, using Hidden Pivots, there is no empirical basis for asserting that $2,000 gold, or even $1,000 gold, is likely. (Click on chart to enlarge) Not so, $100 oil. In fact ' again, from a Hidden Pivot perspective ' a rally to at least $88.68 would become an odds-on bet were the August contract to close above 69.61 for two consecutive bars on the monthly chart. The futures have already fulfilled half of that requirement, recording a June close of 70.68. Now, with just a dozen trading days remaining in July, and August Crude currently trading around $74, it appears fairly likely that our criterion will be met. In the meantime, no matter how high oil goes we can trade it from the long or the short side as opportunity dictates. Counterintuitive as this may sound, it's a lot tougher to pick risk-averse entry points for getting long than short. That's simply because 'everyone' knows oil is headed higher, and 'everyone' therefore would rather be long than short. Oil's role in preventing 'everyone'
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