The Nasdaq index has been slithering sideways for nearly two weeks, so you might as well flip a coin if you're keen on betting which way stocks are finally going to break, up or down. And forget about forming any strong opinions before the close, since that's unlikely to produce better results than a coin-toss. We were forming a bearish opinion ourselves as Thursday's session drew to a close. Fortunately, a telephone distraction prevented our buying a bunch of QQQQ puts just before the bell. They'd have been goners moments later, when Microsoft announced a 23% jump in profits, supposedly on strong demand for Windows and Office software. The news caused the QQQQs, of which Microsoft is a key component, to leap exuberantly in after-hours trading, recouping in mere seconds all of the 67 cents they'd lost during the regular session. Had we bought the puts, they'd have shed 20% of their value before the trade was even confirmed -- just like a new car does when one drives it off the lot. That's what so challenging and stressful about trading: All too often, one gets to experience heart-stopping buyer's remorse mere seconds after a purchase or short sale. Vista or Rat Poison: Choose! Concerning Microsoft's apparent earning's triumph, there was some skepticism in the Rick's Picks chat room about its veracity. That the jump in revenues was attributed in part to hot sales of the Vista operating system seems curious, given that Vista is the most reviled and resisted mediocrity the company has ever shoved down PC users' throats. We should also mention that MSFT's fabulously successful Halo3 video game seems to be taking a heavy toll on the Xbox hardware. My son had to ship his unit back to the company for a warranty replacement after it quit
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