Saturday, April 26, 2008

Mechanical Bull Is an Easy Ride

– Posted in: Current Touts

We can't recall the last time we even looked at a trendline, but our friend Peter Eliades mentioned the one below in his latest update, and we just had to see it for ourselves. As it happens, the bullish implications of this graph are somewhat aligned with our own, mechanically bullish, ideas at the moment. We say 'mechanically bullish' because, Kudlow & Friends aside, only a deaf, dumb and blind algorithm could be bullish right now, given the parlous state of the economy. So, bullish we are, algorithmically speaking. But not very. In practical terms, this means we think the Dow Industrial Average should be able to grope, claw and stumble its way to at least 13247 before it finally gives up the ghost. That's according to a Hidden Pivot calculation, and the target lies about 2.8% above current levels. It is closely coincident with a bullish target we've been using for the E-Mini S&P ' against all logic and instinct, we would have to concede. Logic and instinct, so essential for enabling one to decide where to cast one's fly, or how to handle a mugger who has demanded to be taken to your ATM, nearly undid us early in our trading career. But that was before that fateful day in 1990 when we stumbled on the coldy mechanical Hidden Pivot system while gigging frogs in the South Jersey marshlands. The system has been a godsend ever since, mainly because our instincts had been wrong about the timing of major price swings at least 116% of the time. Armageddon Countdown Now, armed with a mechanical crystal ball, and knowing that at least 355 Dow points remain before Armageddon, we've been preparing for the worst, laying in a supply of bottled water, curing venison, putting up canned peaches and pears ' and,