Wednesday, May 14, 2008

When Boredom Turns Stressful

– Posted in: Current Touts

Yesterday's headline implied that it might be time for bears to take a vacation, but perhaps the mental health of bulls too might benefit if they 'go away in May.' Seasonality will favor longer lapses of tedium on the nation's bourses in the months ahead, but on Wall Street that is surely no remedy for hypertension. Quite the opposite, in fact, since prolonged stretches of sideways price action are almost as stressful as the number one killer of money managers, bear markets. Below is a chartist's version of atrial fibrillation at work, straining the heart and arteries of anyone so foolish as to be trading the E-Mini S&P yesterday: (Click to enlarge) For our part we just watched, having lucked out overnight with a target that caught the bottom in June Crude within 12 cents. Here's the advice for oil traders that went out to Rick's Picks subscribers Monday evening, when quotes for Texas tea were hovering just below $124 : 'There are some bullish targets near 131 given here earlier, but we'll put them aside for now, since the futures look primed for a fall to at least 123.22, or to 122.25 if any lower. Either can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide.' The actual intraday low occurred at 123.10, so a 15-cent stop-loss would have survived our advice. The subsequent rally proved quite robust, hitting 124.19 about three hours later in the dead of night. But it took a nimble hand, iron nerves and quick reflexes to convert the recommendation into lucre, as one chat-room denizen appears to have done, since the June contract dropped like a brick after the rally apexed. Even so, the original low where we'd gotten in held, producing a second rally to 126.02. But by then, anyone in