I promised to report on some of the Big Ideas that came out of the CMRE meeting, and this I shall do in the days ahead. Some speakers featured at the semi-annual event, including John Williams, Bill Laggner and Alex McDougall, shifted my thinking a bit on the deflation/hyperinflation question, and although I remain convinced that deflation will ultimately devastate the economy, I can now at least imagine how a hyperinflation might occur. No one that I am aware of has fleshed out this point, and the inflationists' main argument -- that the Fed 'will do whatever it takes' to keep a deflation from occurring -- has never satisfied me. I also intend to share with you an insight I had concerning unemployment, and how the relatively tame statistics the government has been feeding us belie an economically ruinous trend, already well under way, that might be characterized as rampaging underemployment. But more immediately, let me relate to you the eye-opening discussion I had with a Washington D.C. lobbyist who attended the dinner. Based on conversations he's had with behind-the-scenes players in the Democratic Party, he believes Al Gore has a good chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. This is a possibility that had not occurred to me, but the more I've thought about it, the more plausible it seems. The lobbyist, who spoke with me on the condition that his identity not be revealed, is a well-known figure on Capitol Hill. He said that some of the shakers and movers in the Democratic Party are strongly convinced that, at this point, Gore would be more electable than either Clinton or Obama. This is hardly a stretch, since it should be clear to any observer that the all-but-endless series of primaries has damaged both candidates while leaving their GOP opponent,
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