Murphy's Law at exceptional strength has delayed my return to Denver by a day, but I'd rather spend a few moments tonight talking about all the things that went right. There was the CMRE dinner, for one, since it gave me an opportunity to hear what the best and brightest bears are saying these days -- Jim Grant, John Williams, Alex McDougall and Bill Laggner in particular. Two of those speakers are predicting hyperinflation, and although their arguments were moderately compelling, I will attempt to explain here later this week why I think they will be wrong. I still see deflation as the true threat to the economy, and although I no longer believe that hyperinflation is impossible, the catastrophic damage it would cause to savers and savings institutions, including U.S. and global bond markets, makes it a very unlikely policy choice. I will also tackle the seeming mystery of why unemployment is not skyrocketing even though the economy is falling apart. The answer is pretty simple, and I think persuasive, and I've already given you a hint when I used the word 'under-employment' here a couple of days ago. This is a problem that is still statistically invisible but anecdotally mountainous, as I hope you will agree. I spent the last two days of my trip meeting with one of my two trading partners, John Boutiette, a Boston native who's got enough PC monitors on his desk to blow out all of the lights in Watertown if one of his surge protectors should fail. We spent most of Monday comparing notes on some of the technical tools we use to trade futures contracts, but it was the Red Sox game that evening that made the day memorable. I'd never been to a game at Fenway before, and I came to this one feeling less than fond toward the
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