America waded deeper into bureaucratic manure on Tuesday with the unveiling of yet another bailout acronym. This one goes by the letters TALF, which in case you haven’t heard, stands for Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Unlike TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), which was a bailout “facility” for banks and other institutional lenders, this one is mainly for consumers. "As the economy is turning down,” explained Treasury Secretary Paulson, “it is very important that lending be available to consumers." It seems not to have occurred to the man that perhaps consumers are not in a borrowing mood, even on such blithefully easy terms as the Government might wish to provide. The price tag for this latest acronym? A reported $800 billion. But, hey, who’s counting? If that number is correct, and if you toss in the Citigroup “rescue” surreptitiously tacked and glued into place over the weekend, it’s been a pretty expensive few days for taxpayers. Citi will get $20 billion in up-front money so that the company can maintain payroll, but another $306 billion in portfolio assets will also receive blanket guarantees from the Government. Helicopter Money Concerning TALF, if its purpose is to rain down helicopter money on America, the chopper reportedly won’t even be airborne until February. The initial plan is for the New York Fed to extend up to $200 billion in non-recourse loans to holders of asset-backed securities backed by highly rated consumer and small business loans. This is not a bad idea as far as bailout concepts go, since it is designed to help liquefy a lending niche that so far has somehow managed to survive on its own. But that doesn’t mean the niche has room to grow, or that it will even be viable come February. Our guess is that by then even
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
E-Mini S&P (848.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe pattern shown in the chart points to 612.75, a 28% decline from these levels. Although the overall pattern is pretty easy on the eyes and therefore moderately compelling, the C-D follow-through leg is taking longer to develop than we might have expected. Is this mild buoyancy a sign of accumulation? Perhaps. But we'd need to see a thrust that impales both of the labeled peaks in a single bound before we'd infer that 'C' is likely to be exceeded by a rally, and with it our downright reasonable target at 612.
February Gold (815.80)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe 877.70 target billboarded in Thursday's commentary will remain our lodestone, but more immediately the futures will need to clear a minor midpoint resistance at 822.10 to build some thrust. If they are holding above it halfway into today's session, assume that a finishing stroke to at least 837.50 is imminent.
Dollar Index (85.24)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIf yesterday's low at 84.71 holds, DXY could recover to as high as 87.03 by week's end or early next. However, the index would need to close above that Hidden Pivot for two consecutive days to hint of a resurgence to new highs. The target is derived from a "reverse" abcd pattern like the one used in the gold chart that accompanied yesterday's commentary.


