My outlook for the dollar has been quite bullish for months, but it wouldn’t take much of a decline from here to warrant caution. Specifically, if DXY breaks beneath both of the “external” lows shown in the chart — the lower of which lies at 8717 — without pausing to correct, it would create a bearish impulse leg of minor degree. It would take a much sharper plunge, to below 8505, to turn the hourly chart bearish, but it behooves us to use the more sensitive indicator, since, when the dollar finally turns, the swiftness of its collapse could be breathtaking.