July 29th, 2010
Published Daily
COMMENTARY for Tuesday

Plunge in Dollar Could Get Serious

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2008 9:05 am GMT

Is the dollar finally starting to crack? It surely looks that way, although we’ll need to see another day or two’s worth of action before we can be more certain. The carnage so far has crushed two key supports on the Dollar Index’s daily chart, and it won’t take much more selling to obliterate a third, greatly compounding the technical damage thus far. That would occur if the steep plunge begun on December 4 surpasses the 80.75 low labeled in the chart below. If this were to occur without an intervening correction lasting more than a day, it would make the selloff the most powerful we’ve seen since the dollar embarked on a huge short-squeeze rally in July.

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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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E-Mini Dow (8598)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2008 12:00 am GMT

The futures could pop for a quick 540 points, to as high as 9141, if the impulse leg shown in the charts plays out according to the rules. Its power is somewhat masked by the stall, at B, in — so to speak — the middle of nowhere. Moreover, the C-D follow-through leg has already surpassed the 8687 midpoint by 70 points, suggesting that ‘D’ will be reached. Entry with the trend could be tricky, but an obvious strategy would be to bottom-fish the ‘d’ targets of midpoints of pullbacks.

E-Mini S&P (883.25)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2008 12:01 am GMT

Night owls can short 883.25, stop 884.25, until the opening bell. You could also try getting long with a buy-stop limit at 875.00, just above the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart. The futures have stalled almost precisely at that midpoint, and any progress above it would therefore imply not only that the ‘D’ target itself, 883.25, is likely to be reached, but that its stopping power will be felt very precisely. The only factor that prevents this trade from being a Pick of the Day is the single-tick proximity of the target to the look-to-the-left peak. ______ UPDATE: The trade would have worked nicely, since the futures fell six points after hitting 883.25 for the first time overnight. They subsequently rallied back to 883.75 before relapsing again to 876.50 around dawn. The fact that ES eventually got past the target was ever so mildly bullish, as was its move above a look-to-the-left peak at 883.50 recorded along the wall of Monday’s decline.

HUI Gold Bugs Index (291.95)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2008 12:02 am GMT

A rally target at 288.24 is as much as I can coax from the hourly chart, so anything even slightly higher would be quite bullish going forward. This vehicle isn’t widely traded, but an excellent, low-risk buying opportunity would occur following the correction of an A-B rally that terminates above peak #1 or #2, but below #3. ______ UPDATE: HUI pushed well above the target, suggesting that there is yet more buying power percolating beneath the surface.

$ESU10 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1096.75)

by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2010 12:44 am GMT

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+SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:18.97)

by Rick Ackerman on July 13, 2010 6:17 am GMT

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+DIA – Diamonds (Last:102.13)

by Rick Ackerman on July 12, 2010 12:01 am GMT

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