If the Cubes fall, let’s try to leverage a Hidden Pivot support not far below, at 29.33, by buying a January 29 call (QAVAC). A price of 1.50 would be about right with the underlying shares trading at the target, so you can park a limit order at our price with your broker. _______ UPDATE: Lower the bid, bottom-fishing the calls when the underlying trades for 29.13, not 29.33. The change is due to the stall at 29.75 on the way down, This is the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with 29.13. The calls should be trading for around 1.39. _______UPDATE: Calls now look 1.33-ish, so lower the bid to 1.35. It can be entered as a limit order. Market stop-loss is to be used if calls trade 0.10 below where bought. ________ FURTHER UPDATE: The suggested 1.35 bid would have bought the calls on the so-far low of the day. If you bought more than one contract, take a partial profit on the current bid of 1.40 and let the rest ride, using a stop-loss that would permit (in theory) no loss. You’ll be on your own otherwise, since my goal was to get you into an option trade in a good place and at a good price.
If the futures unravel today or tomorrow you could buy a Hidden Pivot at 858.00 with a stop-loss as tight as five ticks. Anything less would be just noise. Alternatively, immediate upside potential is to as high as 926.25, a Hidden Pivot, if buyers can blow past its associative midpoint at 901.25.
The 38.33 target given here last week will remain valid unless February crude gets short-squeezed above 52.95. More immediately, a thrust touching 46.75 today or tomorrow would hint that DaBoyz are ready, eager and perhaps even half-capable of fomenting such a squeeze — so short sellers, beware.
Gold was idling mischievously Sunday night after selling off Friday to within inches of our 831.60 target. It would need to hit 861.60 today to turn the hourly chart bullish, but if weakness persists, here are downside targets representing, respectively, a 50% retracement, and a 61.8% retracement, of the rally from the 741.20 low recorded in early December: 812.40, and 795.60.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Trust One Asset In Killer Deflation
by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2008 11:33 pm GMT
Financial genius that you are, you sold the tech boom at the top in 2000, presciently moved the proceeds into real estate, and then rode the speeding freight train to a brilliantly timed exit in 2007. Never one to waste time gloating about your successes, you leaped fearlessly into commodities, doubling your money in energy stocks and crude oil before selling everything at the top last July. Good thing your timing was perfect, too, since that bull market turned overnight into the most precipitous and destructive bust since the tech-stock bubble.
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