Yesterday’s news seemed oddly becalmed, as though world events were in a holding pattern. Until a U.S. Airways jet crashed into the Hudson River in the middle of New York’s afternoon, it was the kind of day, news-wise, when the seasonal debut of American Idol could claim headline status on Google News, at least for a short while. TV-dom’s big story of the day was that one of AI’s contestants, nominally a singer, showed up in a bikini. Bloggers appeared to divide over whether she was too skinny to get excited about. Here’s her photo, so judge for yourself: A sampling of the news just before the airline mishap suggested the furies were at rest: Democrats Unveil Stimulus, and Republicans Cry ‘Pork’; Israel Focused on War Aims in Gaza; Vicks’s VapoRub Hazardous for Children Under 2. Concerning that last item, Baby Boomers who so far have survived a potentially toxic exposure to Vick’s are probably breathing a literal sigh of relief. Even the stock market was quiescent in its psychotic way. Newscasters would note in their daily business summaries that the Dow Industrials had closed up 12 points on the day. In fact, that was the net result of a nearly 500-point swing intraday. We had seen it coming in yesterday’s touts, including a mini-crash in crude oil that would have knocked the likes of Katrina Darrel from the front page of Dubai’s tabloids. Would that 2009 passes so very peacefully that any of us might remember Katrina Darell come December. *** Inflation vs. Deflation We continue our exploration of the inflation/deflation conundrum today with a contribution from Ranganathan Krishna, known by the handle “Ranga” in the Rick’s Picks chat room. He writes as follows: “Your point is well taken that in good times
Friday, January 16, 2009
E-Mini S&P (844.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksAt day's end, the futures looked poised for a 23-point thrust to 864.75. The midpoint resistance lies at 847.00, just beneath the 848.50 high of yesterday's recovery spike. That could prove advantageous for us, since any progress above 847.00, even 2-3 ticks, would telegraph a breakpout above the visually obvious peak at 848.50. You could get long on a buy-stop accordingly, although I am recommending this trade only to those who understand how this might be done using a 'camouflaged' point 'X' entry. ______ UPDATE: Forty minutes into the session, the futures are coughing and wheezing their way toward 864.75, having tripped our Hidden Pivot alarm last night with a print at 847.50. However, staying long would have required cunning and courage -- or better yet, obliviousness to risk management -- since the rally overnight was as choppy, tedious and tortured as could have been imagined. This continues as I write these words, and it should be no comfort to bulls that the futures are struggling so hard to reach 864.75.
February Gold (818.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksYesterday's dipsy-doodle action did not disturb my forecast for a pullback to 766, but it did brighten thre outlook for the very near-term. That's because the bounce came off a low slightly above the 799.70 that had been predicted. My bullishness would ratchet up a few more notches if the futures can push above the two minor peaks shown in the chart. That would imply a print at 823.90.
DJIA Dow Industrial Average (8212)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksYesterday's coy, 200-point dip made its low just 10 points above the midpoint support noted in my tout. The nearly 300-point rally that followed might ordinarily be taken as a bullish sign, but what we should notice first is that the intraday low surpassed an important prior low on the daily chart, revitalizing the impulsiveness of the bear cycle begun in October. This means that the bearish scenario sketched here yesterday still obtains, to wit: a close below 7985 would portend more weakness to at least 6883.
