Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The sharp rally of the last two days pushed TBT to a peak at 49.28 -- not quite high enough to get us filled on our put order. However, the pullback looks like it is developing enough thrust to propel TBT above our original target at 49.59. so I'm going to recommend shorting at 50.55, a Hidden Pivot that looks capable of providing some stopping power. We'll use the March 50 put (TBTOX), which should be trading for around 3.00 (see option calculator). The price is just a guess, which is the best we can do with the target still more than $2 away, but we can hone it by observing changes in the reflected Feb 50 put bid as TBT gets within 15 or so cents of the target. Please note that buying put options in this vehicle is equivalent to initiating a long position in the underlying Treasury future. _______ UPDATE: Cancel the order, since TBT appears to have made a short-term top at 49.86.

No change. A Hidden Pivot at 952.30 remains the most significant target immediately above, although getting there has been tedious and tortuous. Looking at a smaller picture yields a lesser target at 945.90 that was mentioned here earlier, as well as its sibling midpoint at 918.10. That last number was a stumbling point yesterday, so a decisive move above it today would be strong evidence that the move is under way to 945.90/952.30.

Having exceeded the 1234.50 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown in the chart, the futures appear bound for at least 1241.00. You can short there with a stop loss just above 1242.00, but this is recommended for nimble night owls only, since a move to the target would create a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE: Cancel the order, since the futures topped at 1239.75, a hair beneath our target, overnight.

The pattern shown in the chart has the kind of AB impulse leg we should like, slightly exceeding some look-to-the-left lows and using a well defined one-off 'A'. It yields a target at 36.13, so I'll recommend bottom-fishing at 36.14 with an initial stop-loss as tight as 8 cents. Switch to a 15-cent trading stop on a rally to 36.48 and use 36.77 as a minimum upside objective.

Just when it looks like the stock market had permanently lost touch with reality, sellers show up in droves and all is right with the world! Yesterday's bracing plunge refreshed a timeless target at 6883 that we first broached here a while ago. The Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with that number is 7985, and I'd suggest looking on the lesser charts for shorting opportunities if a rally approaches that number. Alternatively, DaBoyz would be back on the offensive if they can foment a short-squeeze today that exceeds 8105.