Someone mentioned Ross Clark’s 6600 target for the Dow, so I thought I’d have a look, since anything Ross cites as support is unlikely to become chopped liver. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, however, 6600 does not show up on my radar, although that’s not to say we won’t see a bounce from there for reasons that Ross has not detailed. With the key Hidden Pivot support at 6883 now destroyed, two more important pivots remain on the weekly chart: 5794 and 4747. Although I have given “disaster” targets before that were somewhat different from these, they are the targets I find most compelling at the moment. Consider the first a minimum downside projection, the second a wait-and-see prospect whose likelihood will depend on how long 5794 endures. More immediately, it would take a rally today exceeding at 6976 to turn the lowly 5-minute chart bullish. On the hourly, nothing less than 7469 would do the job.

The 675.50 downside target given here yesterday remains valid, but if it’s breached by more than a couple of points we should brace for a renewed onslaught to at least 622.25. Alternatively, a bullish turnaround would need to hit 751.00 today to earn our grudging respect, but anything less should be regarded as mere noise. One final note: Monday night owls might be impressed by the wafting rally which has pushed the futures up by about 10 points as of 1 a.m., but it’s just bluster until it clears four tightly spaced peaks on the 3-minute chart that range from 715.75 to 719.25.

A bullish reversal of at least minor degree would be signaled today by a print at 936.40, but if the futures continue lower, 916.50 is the first place where I’d recommend bottom-fishing, stop 915.90. A support even more promising for speculative buying lies at 906.80, a Hidden Pivot that is my worst-case objective for today. The midpoint associated with it is 933.10, so look for signs of a struggle at that price before the futures decide which way to go. If higher, the hourly chart would turn bullish at 945.90. ________ UPDATE: Gold fell hard to a low this morning at 905.70 (!) and has since bounced as high as 914.40. If you were on board for the ride near the lows, you should have taken a partial profit on the nearly $9 rally that assued (assuming your initial stop-loss was placed at 903.90 or higher. Risk:reward should always be held in a 1:3 ratio, from time of entry to exit.)

So much for Peak Oil. I’ve scaled April Crude’s chart at 180 minutes so that you can see how visually compelling the case is for $22.52 a barrel — a 44% fall from here. That would be good news for consumers, assuming the will to consume hasn’t flatlined by then. There is more potential good news as well, since terrorist states like Iran will be starved for cash. But the clear implication is that energy demand from manufacturers in America, Asia and Europe will practically have vanished.

Shorting puts as the stock plummeted to within a nickel of our target yesterday morning, we’ve legged on the June 25-June 23 put spread six times (or a multiple thereof) for a debit of 0.08. This means that the worst we can do at expiration is lose a total of $48 with GDX trading 25 or higher, and the best we can do is make $1,152 if the stock is below 23. It is nearly riskless insurance against prolonged weakness in gold, and we can leg out of it just as we legged into it, possibly achieving profits even greater than the $1,152 potential that we could realize by sitting on the position till June. For now, do nothing further.