Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
I was conservative in my estimate Tuesday night and wound up raising it in the chat room to 748+. By day’s end, though, the futures had outbid me, putting in a high at 753.00. That left them in good shape to try for 771.75 today, or perhaps 778.00 at the very outside. Both are Hidden Pivots, but I wouldn’t suggest digging in your heels there just to prove a point. If the futures go just a tad higher than that today, exceeding 779.50, bears had better cover on the bell and repair to their fallout shelters over the weekend, since the short-squeeze could conceivably go nuclear. Note to Doc, Audrey et al: The equivalent targets for the June contract are, respectively, 769.00 and 774.25.
I mentioned a 112.31 rally target yesterday half in jest, but if you look at the rally unfolding on the hourly chart, as opposed to the daily, you can see that there’s enough power to get the stock there. The midpoint resistance is 92.55, and although GS hesitated there for a day-and-a-half, it blasted well clear of that number yesterday. A pullback to 92.54 should be scrutinized for low-risk buying opportunities, but we should also view the possibility of shorting 15 points above these levels as realistic. We can look for “camouflaged” entry opportunities in the chat room — and I’m sure there will be some good ones — but once again, I hesitate to suggest that this rally can be safely ridden via advice disseminated the night before.
We came within 0.05 points yesterday of hitting the exact low, enabling longs to get on board ahead of a powerful rally. Let’s give it another whirl today, bottom-fishing two ticks above a promising Hidden Pivot support at 45.13, stop 45.04. I’d suggest using the April 45 calls (TBTDS), which should be selling for around 2.80 by then. If it had been possible to use a limit order for the calls, I would have deisgnated this as a Pick of the Day trade, since the purpose of such trades is to make you money on autopilot.
Study the chart closely, because it would take me a thousand words to explain all that is going on here. What do we notice first? This: The first bearish impulse leg to form on the daily chart since January occurred earlier this week with Tuesday’s slight penetration of an earlier low from February 9 at 891.90. This down-leg looks pretty docile, though, since it lasted all of three days and reversed without breaching two more “external” lows that look like they should have been dead meat. So what of it? Well, for one, it could set up a nice buying opportunity at 904.40 today or Monday, provided the point ‘C’ high endures. The 904.40 target, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, also has analytical value, since its decisive breach would imply more weakness to as low as 877.20 over the near term. The only other point to make is that a rally today above ‘C’ could create trouble, since, applying the two-peaks rule (note: 964.00 is not a peak), it would mean that the uptrend would need to keep going, exceeding 1007.70, to create a bullish impulse leg to negate the ”docile” A-B bear impulse mentioned above (and shown in the chart). The foregoing was not intended to make much sense to Hidden Pivot novices, but I hope that I’ve spelled things out clearly enough to help experienced Pivoteers dance an impressive samba in the chat room if they are called upon. (And if their feet are very nimble indeed, they’ll be able to find camouflage for a long entry with-the-trend if the futures don’t accommodate with a dip to 904.)
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Two Shipping Stocks (!) to Like…
by Rick Ackerman on March 13, 2009 1:50 am GMT · 1 comment
Today’s commentary features the sage technical work of our good friend Larry Amernick, who sees speculative value in two NYSE-listed shipping stocks: K-sea Transport Partners (KSP) and International Shipholding Corp. (ISH). Larry has spent six years developing a sophisticated array of forecasting tools that have been remarkably prescient lately. He sees K-Sea as an arbitrage against oil prices, and International Shipping as a good bet to outperform its sector. We offer his analysis of both of these stocks as counterpoint to our usual glum view of shares in general. These are timely “buy” recommendations, and we’ll let Larry, publisher of the weekly Amernick Market Report (click here for a free sample), tell you why. Here is the report that he mailed out to subscribers Thursday night:
“During the past few weeks, many in the financial media pointed to the strength in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a reason to turn bullish on equities. It is true that the Transportation Sector is a leading indicator and early bull market leader. If the market » Read the full article