Today’s forecast isn’t rocket science, since there are only two rally targets to engage our speculative interest.  The first, a Hidden Pivot at 824.00, lies a mere 3.00 points above the apex of yesterday’s joyride; the second is at 855.00.  A move to the higher number should be considered an odds-on bet if the futures close above 824.00 or exceed it by more than 2.50 points intraday. I’ve included a chart that shows how the B-C segment of the pattern I’ve used here is chiseled in granite, there being no credible alternatives. I have not provided any downside targets for today because, frankly, why bother? For the record, though,  a 50% retracement of the joyride would equate to 791.25; a 0.618 retracement, to  784.25

Okay, Monday’s commentary was intended as a little tough love for goldbugs. But it doesn’t negate the bullish fact that last Friday’s spike exceeded a look-to-the-left peak  at 964.00 from February 27, engendering a bullish impulse leg that could still bear “C-D fruit”.  To calculate the odds of another leg up, we can use a simple Lindsay calculation.  Assuming 936.00 is not first breached to the downside, the entry trigger for longs would come at 946.50, midpoint resistance at 957.00, and a price objective of 978.00 thereafter. These numbers are offered to help you gauge the strength of any rally, and I am not recommending getting long at 946.50 unless you know how to use “camouflage” to do it. I can offer no useful downside possibilities at the moment, since Monday night’s waft is making a point high ‘C’ elusive.  But once ‘C’ appears to be in, use a 10-minute chart, where A=952.90 and B=936.00. _______ UPDATE (3:55 a.m.):  The fledgling recovery has turned south, creating a ‘C’ high that allows a downside projection to a Hidden Pivot at 927.70 if its midpoint sibling at 936.10 gets trashed.

Let’s see if a Hidden Pivot resistance at 112.31 can tame this psycho-ward escapee. Despite the violent price action, our position is showing a $90 paper profit at the moment and that could increase to as much as $1900 if the stock is trading around 115 when the April calls expire.  We are short three of them, long two July 115 calls as well, and long two April 85-90 put spreads for 1.20 apiece.  I’ve included a snapshot of an option calculator that shows how I arrived at the $1900 figure.  It has the July 115 calls worth $1497 each on April 18 with GS trading around 115. If you do the math, you’ll be rewarded with an insight into how a calendar spread — slightly ratio’d in this case – works.

Not much has changed for Citi, even if the stock has quadrupled in just two weeks off its all-time low of 97 cents. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, Citigroup may be worth no more than a buck or two per share when stripped of all the businesses that once fattened its bottom line. What’s left?  Soliciting passbook deposits in order to make consumer loans? Not much fun in that, but anything fancier will require the kind of leap of faith on borrowers’ part that may be dead for 50 years. In any event,  we don’t see the nuttiness in this stock going much further, and that could put a drag on Goldman shares, even.