The futures were in the throes of a minor shakeout Sunday night, headed toward a Hidden Pivot at 800.50 that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss at 798.75. The trade can be done straightforwardly if the target is hit before Monday’s opening bell, but it may require some speed and agility if our number arrives amidst the expected rowdiness of the first hour.  Looking at a bigger picture, the rally target at 848.25 mentioned in today’s commentary (and earlier) will remain valid as long as  787.00 is not exceeded to the downside. Please note that the 800.50 target is not chopped liver, and its easy breach would be telegraphing more weakness.)  _______ UPDATE:  The mini-contract got almost no bounce whatsoever from 800.50, stopping the position out for a loss of about $100. The downtrend subsequently created a weak impulse leg on the hourly chart by exceeding last week’s 787.00 low on the second attempt. If the Administration’s allegedly “tough” stand on an auto bailout is the cause of this selling, as has been inferred, then the weakness must be bought, since there is no way Obama is going to let the industry die.

A pop today exceeding 929.90 would put shorts mildly on the defensive, but otherwise there is still downside jeopardy to as low as 894.80 over the next couple of days. That’s a Hidden Pivot support, and although the futures have been struggling since Friday to hold above its sibling midpoint at 920.70, that number has already been exceeded by $1.70, hinting of more weakness to come.

Is Best Buy’s winning streak over?  Quite possibly, since the maximum target we could have projected using the daily chart, 39.28, came within three cents of being reached on last Thursday’s gap-up rally.  We hadn’t noticed this potential exhaustion spike until an e-mail arrived from our friend Zane B., who turned bearish on the stock last week. He is evidently itching to buy some in-the-money puts, although our preference would have been to acquire out-of-the-moneys last week when the stock was just inches from the target.  BBY’s strength has been based partly on the demise of a major competitor, Circuit City, but the chain may also have benefited from the surprising strength in big-screen TV sales.  In any event, let’s bid 2.65 for two June 35 puts (BYYRG), day order, in case the stock feints higher. _______ UPDATE: Fuggedaboutit. Best Buy is getting clobbered with the market today and the puts have traded no lower than 3.40.

HUI looks like a good bet to reach 361.53, and possibly 393.88, although the move would be delayed if Comex Gold falls to the 894.80 target projected in today’s tout.  A likely place for the implied consolidation to occur would be down around 301.65, the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the lower rally target.  If HUI were to pull back to that number, we’d be buyers of the index itself, since options on this vehicle are so dead as to be useless. Typically, we would put on calendar spreads at the 360 strike, using long-date options or even LEAPs for the long side of our position.

Look for Friday’s weakness to continue to at least 51.75, a Hidden Pivot target  that you could bottom-fish with an initial stop loss suited to your style, but no wider in any event than about 30 cents. If the trade goes in the black by 70-80 cents hang on, since the rally has high potential due to the power of the most recent impulse leg.  It went $10, exceeding no fewer than five prior peaks on the daily chart, three of them “external”. _______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m.):  Cancel the bid. This morning’s low missed our target by 11 cents, bouncing 36 cents so far from 51.86.  The target is still valid in theory, but our bottom-fishing edge has been compromised by a “natural” low that will attract support-and-resistance players and other hoi-polloi.