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From the monthly archives:
April 2009
After topping this morning within two cents of a 129.63 target given here earlier, Goldman shares have fallen as low as 127.25. The stock is currently trading for 127.40 and I am therefore recommending that anyone who shorted the top cover half of the position at or near these levels. You'll be on your own in managing what remains of your position, but keep in mind that another surge is possible to as high as $144 if the stock breaks above 129.65.
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Our bullish position includes four Sep 84 (DAVIF) -May 84 calendar spreads for 3.45 and a September 76 put for 1.49. The spread is currently trading for around 4.00, yielding a theoretical gain of $220, but we can probably do better, so let it ride. If the Diamonds hit 84 this Friday, we’ll try to exit for around 4.50. The timing would favor us, since it’s probably going to dawn on traders by then that May options expire on the earliest possible date, the 15th. Anyway, come Monday, May option premium will start to melt away fast.
The two-peaks rule applies to Silver Wheaton just as it would any other trading vehicle. In this regard, notice how yesterday’s promising rally stopped just a hair short of the external peak whose breach would have turned the 15-minute chart bullish. We needn’t infer weakness in this instance; rather, buyers evidently were reluctant to move decisively because bullion prices were retreating. The chart yields a potentially excellent opportunity for buyers Thursday morning, since a mere 21-cent thrust would surpass three prior peaks — one of them external. However, if the stock continues to misbehave, it will open on a gap above the three peaks, turning “everyone” too bullish for camouflage. In any event, and just to be in the game, let’s bid 0.65 today for four September 10 calls (SLWIB). _______ UPDATE (10:12 a.m.): The stock opened lower, so we were able to buy the calls for 0.65, the low of the day thus far. Do nothing further for now.
A rally to at least at 892.75 still looks like a lead-pipe cinch, but the target is probably too well advertised by now to short with a microtight stop-loss. Since it’s conceivable that the mass psychosis driving this bear rally will not abate merely because it has encountered a Hidden Pivot with some stopping power, we should have a back-up target in mind. For this purpose we shall use 919.50, a Hidden Pivot, and it should be considered a lock-up if the futures close above 892.75 on the same day they have finally achieved it. I don’t expect that to happen, but if it does, bears should get out of the way.
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Here's an interesting note from one Ron Zuziak, biochemist, concerning a subscriber's recommendation of grapefruit seed extract for fortifying one's immune system: "Rick, as a biochemist I can attest to the efficacy of GSE . (grapefruit seed extract) It is great in combatting most bacteria and many viruses. It even is effective to a close strain cousin of anthrax, even though no direct testing on anthrax has been performed to the best of my knowledge. Don's dosage is a good dosage level. I also recommend adding Sambucol and Vitamin C (1000 mg 3x day) and Lysine (1000 mg-2x-3x day.) The later combination is a continued research effort by Dr. Rath, a protege of the famous Dr. Linus Pauling....
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As a minimum downside target for the near term, let’s use the 873.20 Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. The point ‘B’ I’ve used is not ideal because it failed to take out the cluster of minor lows recorded a week ago, but the overall pattern has the kind of heft that gives it authority. If the futures overshoot the target by more than 3-4 ticks, expect the selling to continue down to 868.00, a Hidden Pivot that you could bottom-fish aggressively with an 868.10 bid and a stop-loss as tight as 1.10 points. Alternatively, if Gold heads higher, we can use 914.60 as a bullish trigger, since a print there would turn the 15-minute chart unambiguously positive. _______ UPDATE (1:45 p.m.) During Wednesday morning’s tutorial session we identified a minor rally target at 905.00, but it didn’t look like there was sufficient wattage to take the futures much higher, at least not today.
Just a Small Thrust Needed in Gold
by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2009 1:30 am GMT · 2 comments
Although it wouldn’t take much to turn June Gold’s daily chart robustly bullish, the futures continue to tease and titillate without delivering the goods. They are obviously marking time, too feisty to be knocked to the ground but not yet ready for the inevitable assault on $1000. We saw some of this wish-washyness yesterday morning during the weekly webinar for graduates of the Hidden Pivot course. The Comex June contract was » Read the full article