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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
A rally today exceeding 899.50 would turn the hourly chart bullish. That wouldn’t be enough to negate our 845.20 downside target — a print at 970.10 would be needed to accomplish that – but it would be an encouraging start. If and when the futures fall to 845.20, you can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as you wish. Since the target has been “out there” for a while, though, I’d suggest interpolating for use in another vehicle, such as GLD options.
Yesterday’s plunge lengthened and strengthened the bearish impulse leg begun on the daily chart from 343.27 last week. We’ve been using 249.04 as a minimum downside objective, but I’m going to lower it to 238.51, a more compelling Hidden Pivot. That number will be in play unless HUI reverses to take out 343.27 to the upside. Alternatively, and assuming yesterday’s low at 289.60 is not surpassed, a two-day close above 327.97 would put bulls solidly back in charge.
The nearest support, a Hidden Pivot at 820.00, does not look like it would be very useful, lying as it does within 1.25 points of yesterday’s low. More appealing for purposes of getting long is the look-to-the-left-peak at 837.50shown in the chart, since it could conceivably provide the camouflaged signal of strength that we look for to make entry with the trend. Night owls should note that any further downside exceeding this evening’s so far low at 827.25 would be telegraphing more weakness, since 827.25 is a Hidden Pivot support.
Upside potential over the near term is to as high as 59.20. That target should be considered no worse than an even-odds bet at this point, since it sibling midpoint at 54.13 has already been decisively exceeded. Alternatively, it would take a print at 45.94 to turn the daily chart bearish.
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Investors Craziest When ‘Unconcerned’
by Rick Ackerman on April 7, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 2 comments
Yesterday’s weakness in stocks was attributed to “concerns” about the banking system. At least, that’s what we heard on the car radio while we were out doing some errands Monday morning. Funny how these supposed concerns can pop up at any hour of the day, often for no apparent reason. Scarcely ten hours earlier one might have thought investors hadn’t a care in the world, let alone grave worries about the health of America’s banking system. It was late Sunday night, and we were just about to turn in as the electronic index futures wafted blissfully higher, up more than 12 points in thin trading. The action implied that » Read the full article