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There was nothing the least bit impressive about yesterday’s upthrusts, although shorts should be wary of bullish seasonality ahead of the long holiday weekend. At the bell, the futures looked bound for 833.75, just eight points above current levels as of 11:15 p.m., but it would take two more ticks — i.e., a print at 834.25 – to refresh the minor bull trend on the hourly chart. Above that threshold is a more important resistance at 836.75. That’s the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a bull pattern begun from 779.00 on April 1, and we’ll stipulate that the futures close above it for two consecutive days before we infer that a rally to its sibling target at 871.25 is under way. Alternatively, if the June contract falls overnight without having exceeded 828.75 to the upside, you could bottom-fish at 813.25 with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. _______ UPDATE (9:05 a.m.): 25 minutes before the opening, the futures were in a vicious short-squeeze, bound for the 871.25 target noted above. Forget the two-day close above 836.75, since this midpoint resistance has been thoroughly compromised.
Gold spent yesterday in gratuitous spasms that added nothing to the short-term bullish case. A murky Hidden Pivot target at 896.00 can be used as a minimum rally objective, but I wouldn’t recommend shorting there. Getting to that resistance would again add nothing bullish to the short-term picture, since it will still take a pop to at least 899.60 today — that’s a number broached during yesterday’s tutorial session — to turn the hourly chart bullish.
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Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In
by Rick Ackerman on April 9, 2009 3:00 am GMT · 11 comments
The back-of-the-napkin numbers sketched out below are the handiwork of our good friend Doug B., a stockbroker who not only helped his clients dodge the bullet of recession/depression, but who also brought them some tidy returns on their portfolios last year. Doug got his clients out of stocks and heavily into Treasurys before the latter took off in 2008, and he has since redeployed the proceeds aggressively in municipal bonds. During our lunch together on Wednesday, he presented a very persuasive case as to why » Read the full article