March 11th, 2010
Published Daily
COMMENTARY for Monday

Stimulus at Its Most Frightening

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 2:54 am GMT · 6 comments

If you thought Geithner, Bernanke & Friends were out of touch with the basic principles of Econ 101 — i.e., Savings=Investment — you should listen to what some private economists are saying. Richard Koo, for instance.  He is Nomura’s chief economist and therefore about as mainstream as they come. But to hear him speak his mind ofrankenkeynes-smalln how to end the recession is to despair of the possibility that private capital will have a significant role to play in whatever economy emerges from the ruins of the one now dying.   

Koo evidently thinks the U.S. has something to learn from Japan’s death-like experience with deflation and prolonged recession. However, his advice to U.S. policymakers overlooks the fact that Japan itself has yet to escape the deflationary drag that has constrained the island nation’s economy for the last 20 years.  Ignoring this depressing fact, Koo emphasizes instead that Japan managed via heroic fiscal stimulus to keep the country’s GDP from falling even as deflation destroyed wealth equivalent to three years’ GDP.  Is it possible the economy » Read the full article

Business as Usual

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 2:23 pm GMT

No surprises so far this morning, since the “Goldman indicator” seems to be working just fine:  stocks opened down — a Monday morning shakeout maneuvered by buyers — but a recalcitrant Goldman is now pulling the entire market back up to “unchanged.”  It hasn’t hurt that another invincible stock, Apple, is bucking the engineered selloff.  Keep that 871.25 E-Mini S&P target in mind, since it is all but guaranteed to be reached by tomorrow or Wednesday.


Rick's Picks for Monday
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GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:130.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 3:05 am GMT

Friday's $10 thrust was a short-squeeze truly worthy of the name, since it came on news that the company plans to float a zillion new shares while the gettin's good. We hesitate to predict how high the squeeze will go, especially with index futures evidently under pressure Sunday night. But our hunch is that stocks will get dragged higher by Goldman rather than the other way around. If so, look for the rally to continue to at least ...

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AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:119.57)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 3:16 am GMT

A Wall Street Journal story out over the weekend told how Steve Jobs has continued to run the show while on medical leave. He's due back in late June, but in the meantime we should expect Apple shares to move relentlessly higher -- most immediately to the ...

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GCM09 – Comex June Gold (Last:888.60)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 3:40 am GMT

Gold is wafting ever-so-gently higher Sunday night, but it will still need to push above the modest threshold at _____ flagged here last week in order to cause shorts discomfort...

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ESM09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:848.00)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 3:53 am GMT

The _____ rally target broached here last week looks as compelling as ever, and any minor patterns that turn up on the lesser charts should therefore be used aggressively to leverage what's left of the move. (And so should a pullback to ______, since that is the Hidden Pivot midpoint -- now support -- associated with the target...

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YMM09 – E-Mini Dow (Last:7988)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 4:06 am GMT

A rally target at exactly _____ is equivalent to the one we've been using for the E-Mini S&P. Leveraging the upside will be catch-as-catch-can for night owls, but officially I'll recommend shorting _____ via an_____ offer, stop _____...

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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:85.66)

by Rick Ackerman on April 13, 2009 4:17 am GMT

DXY could create a potent bullish impulse leg with a relatively short thrust to _____, although there was no technical evidence Sunday night that such a move was imminent. The key to the short-term chart lies in a look-to-the-left peak at ...

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