Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Sunday
TODAY'S ACTION for Sunday
Rick's Picks for Sunday
We hold the Sep 84 (DAVIF) -May 84 calendar spread four times for 3.45 and a September 76 put purchased for 1.49 on the opening last Thursday. Our maximum theoretical gain would come with the underlying stock trading around $84 when the May calls that we are short expire on May 15. The theoretical gain for the position would be about $779, based on a 5.77 price for the September calls, a price of zero for the May calls, and a price of zero for the May 76 put. If you work the numbers, you’ll see that this position yields a theoretical profit over a very wide range of prices. I’ve included a snapshot of an option calculator that shows how I estimated the value of the September 84 calls as of May 15 with the underlying trading for $84.
A Hidden Pivot at 892.75still looks compelling as a minimum upside target. The midpoint sibling of this number is 857.75, so any pullback to that number should be viewed as a possible buying opportunity. One way to take advantage of this conservatively would be to place a tightly stopped bid at a minor-retracement ‘d’ target or c-d midpoint, but the tactic is best attempted by someone familiar with Hidden Pivot Method. As you can see, the swoon in the closing minutes of Friday’ session brought the futures down to within a point of the 857.75midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (11:02 p.m.):The futures are getting demolished Sunday night and look bound for846.00 or worse. That’s a Hidden Pivot support, and if it’s easily breached, the next target in the sequence would be 839.50.
The 920.10 rally target given here on Friday is still valid, although there’s a minor secondary target at 922.00 that we should also keep in mind. The ease with which the rally gets past these numbers will give us a clue concerning its strength, but if buyers should push the futures to 938.90 today, that would signal the likely onset of a significantly more powerful thrust. As you can see in the accompanying chart, that would refresh the bull trend on the hourly chart by exceeding not only an obvious ‘external’ peak, but a look-to-the-left-er recorded along the wall of a three-day decline. _______ UPDATE (11 a.m): The futures topped overnight at 919.70 — four ticks shy of the target. We’ve lost count of the number of rallies that have merely met the minimum requirement without going the extra inch that would have signaled real strength.
May Silver looked bound for at least 13.205 when the bell ended Friday’s session, but the rally will probably need to do a smidgen better, surpassing a prior peak at 13.260, to rattle the nerves of shorts. The would refresh the bull trend on the hourly chart and set the futures on course for a test of the 13.885 peak recorded on March 23. A two-day-close above that number would significantly shorten the odds of a thrust to as high as 16.005 by mid-May.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Cliff Dive Ahead for Bank Stocks
by Rick Ackerman on April 26, 2009 7:06 pm GMT · 2 comments
We’ve masked the salient details, but can you guess which NYSE-listed stock owns the powerful rally shown in the chart below? There are two things to notice: 1) the company’s shares are trading above $100 – a rare distinction at a time when many erstwhile blue chip companies have been reduced by the Great Recession to penny-stock status; and 2) the stock has nearly doubled in value since early March – a far better performance in these hard times, even, than Apple, whose shares have appreciated by “only” about 50 percent over the same period. Moreover, the stock has risen 278% percent since November. Give up? Here’s another hint: It is a financial company whose program trading in recent weeks » Read the full article