ESM09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:832.50)

DaBoyz let the futures grope their way relentlessly lower yesterday in search of a bottom that never materialized.  Now, judging from the extremely timid action Monday night, the pros are as nervous as the amateurs concerning what might ensue.  The two possible scenarios on which nearly everyone is focused are 1) the bear rally begun on March 6 is over; or 2) a sharp break, one with perhaps 2-3 days remaining, will be recouped quickly as the bear rally returns in earnest. My hunch is that the hoax has run its course and that the next leg down will see the futures fall to at least 734.25 by May. We’ll be better able to judge the likelihood of this once the futures have had time to interact with the 802.25 low recorded on April 10. If its breach should occur without an intervening rally of more than a day, that would create a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart magnitude.