Although it wouldn’t take much to turn June Gold’s daily chart robustly bullish, the futures continue to tease and titillate without delivering the goods. They are obviously marking time, too feisty to be knocked to the ground but not yet ready for the inevitable assault on $1000. We saw some of this wish-washyness yesterday morning during the weekly webinar for graduates of the Hidden Pivot course. The Comex June contract was inching toward a 905.00 rally target, evidently lacking the power to reach a more ambitious target at 914.50 that would have turned the hourly chart unambiguously bullish. Alas, the rally died at 904.00, a dollar beneath our target, sending the futures into a $10 dive that was all too typical of recent price action.
So what, exactly, would it take to turn June Gold into a screaming buy? Very simply, a rally that traverses the gap between 919.70 to 935.80 without taking a breather lasting more than a day. According to our technical rules, that would create a bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, effectively clinching a follow-through to at least 967.30. Moreover, that last number is a “midpoint” Hidden Pivot, and if it were to be breached on a closing basis for two consecutive days, a further surge to at least 1069.60 would become an odds-on bet.
Silver More Bullish
This sequence of events is of course speculative at this point, and we needn’t get excited about it until such time as the June contract musters a similar feat on the lesser charts, surpassing the 914.50 benchmark noted above. Meanwhile, and interestingly, May Silver’s daily chart is slightly more bullish than Gold’s. We cannot say whether this means silver is likely to outperform gold during the next bull cycle, but it is reassuring on the question of bullion’s eventual direction. Higher prices seem very likely, but we will probably not see them until the bear rally that has impelled stocks higher since early March flames out.
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Aloha
The dearth of posts on precious metals bodes well for PMs.
Eventually.
Meanwhile http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxlof.htm
shows Silver’s 4 Largest Traders three times short and
Gold’s Commercials double short.
The bullish news is shorts are declining somewhat on the weekly
Commitment of Traders Report.
We never underestimate the power of Golden Slacks to wag the dog for a while….
Regards*Rich
Question to any commenter/Rick:
Now that China has become #4(?) in Gold ownership with its 1000+ tons, is there any knowledge, as to where sourced that ~400t increase?
It doesn’t seem like there is any correlation to the price of spot with this acquisition news, if they only did this increase within the last year.
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