If the stock catches a breeze, it could get to 129.63by week’s end. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and its midpoint sibling at 123.92 has already been exceeded. More immediately, we can try bottom-fishing at 119.05, the target of a minor corrective pattern. Bid there for 200 shares, stop 118.96, raising the stop to 119.45 if the bounce we’re expecting materializes and hits 119.65. Minimum price objective: 119.90. ______ UPDATE: The stock lurched maniacally higher today and is currently up around $6. Looks like that 129.63 target will be reached sooner rather than later.
From the monthly archives:
April 2009
We’ve been playing cat-and-mouse with Silver Wheaton, trying to get long on weakness rather than on strength. Let’s bid 0.60 today for four September 10 calls (SLWIB), contingent on the stock trading 7.60 or higher. If SLW slips below that price lower the bid for the calls to 0.55 and leave it there for the rest of the day. Judging from the way the bids and offers have been mutating intraday, the calls seem to have a following. Seasoned traders undoubtedly covet the series because once Sep 10 calls are acquired, it’s possible to sell other call options short against them without taking much risk. The accompanying graph shows a potential bottoming formation for the Sep 10s near 0.60. It’s possible to buy and sell options using ABC target calculations just as we do with the underlying stock. FYI, the stock could fall to as low as 7.44 if it breaches a midpoint support at 7.66 that has held so far. _______ UPDATE (1:40 p.m.): SLW opened on a gap well away from our bid, having gone only a penny below the midpoint support. If we are to catch a ride on this stock, it may need to be by way of an intraday entry and “camouflaged” opportunity.
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Silver Wheaton has upside potential to as high as 10.22 on the next thrust. Let’s try to leverage this possibility by legging into some calendar spreads at the $10 strike. As long as the stock is trading $8 or higher, bid 0.74 for four September 10 calls (SLWIB), good through Friday. _______ UPDATE (12:20 p.m.): The stock opened below $8 and has weakened since, so let’s lower our bid to 0.60 and leave it in for the remainder of the day.
The bullish action of the last week has not negated those nettlesome targets down around $11 – that would take a pop above 13.885 – but it has reduced the likelihood of their being reached over the near term to a very low order of probability. More immediately, a thrust of at least 37 cents originating from anywhere north of 12.335 would signal the onset of a potentially much more powerful rally — one that could hit 14.02 before mid-May.
Gold played touch-sies with our target yesterday, only to retreat timidly thereafter. The selloff did no technical damage, even on the 15-minute chart, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. However, if the futures are to get back in bullish gear, we should ask that they demonstrate their intentions with a leap exceeding 938.80, a small but significant peak made on the way down in late March. That would create the kind of bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart that would not be easily reversed. _______ UPDATE (10:10 p.m. EDT): The futures went silly shortly after 8 p.m., creating in just a few blinks some price bars that probed as low as 885.70. For the next few hours, at least, the markets will test the rationality of this inscrutable print, guided (or perhaps misguided) by whatever rumors find their way onto our favorite gold sites.
Stocks came crawling out of the gate Monday, ushering in the new week with a display of heart-corroding tedium unseen since….last week. Or the week before that, come to think of it. Look at the graph if you think we’ve exaggerated. It shows the Dow Industrials in a relentless dither that extends back to early April. The range from highs to lows is about 300 points, an unnatural compression that we might expect to give way to an explosive move at some point. Oftentimes such moves are telegraphed by Bollinger Bands, which » Read the full article
Nothing has altered the appeal of the 892.75 rally target broached here earlier, and it should be held as our minimum upside target as long as support at 823.00 is not breached. In the meantime, expect bulls and bears to continue to duke it out above and below 857.00, the midpoint sibling of the 892.75 Hidden Pivot. _______ UPDATE (11:20 p.m. EDT): Moderately weak in after-hours trading, the futures looked bound for 844.00, a minor Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss at 842.75. You’ll be on your own if this one fills, but keep in mind that it’ll take a rally of at least 3.75 points to put you in a position to take partial profits or implement a trailing stop. ________ FURTHER UPDATE (10:25 a.m. EDT): With the futures on their way down to an overnight low at 838.50, the trade was stopped out for a $63 loss after bouncing 3.00 points.
The bull trend begun in mid-February is still (mildly) dominant and could propel the futures to as high as 56.87. It may be starting to reassert itself today, since a corrective trend begun on April 17 that should have reached a downside target at 45.26 is having trouble bashing the midpoint support, 48.50, into submission. At the moment, you could say that the bearish correction is struggling for its life as it oscillates violently around 48.50. The bullish and bearish patterns referred to above are shown in the accompanying chart.
Pandemic Humor, and Some Tips…
by Rick Ackerman on April 29, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 17 comments
Gallows humor kept the Rick’s Picks chat room from slipping into coma yesterday as the stock market went into yet another soporific dirge. With swine flu metastasizing globally by the hour, there was talk of Black Plague, and also this revolting remedy, attributed to the late George Carlin: “The best way to get your kids immunized against almost everything is to go to India and order food off a street vendor, throw the food on the street, then feed it to your kids.” We much preferred the household remedy of another subscriber, Don C., who » Read the full article