Comments on: Gloomy Picture Perhaps Worse Than It Seems

By: Rich

Rich — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:58:53 +0000

Read the fine print on ETFs.
They do not track their markets long term.
Also, JP Morgan and Barclay gold and silver ETFs are not backed 100% by physicals, but derivatives, and can make gold and silver loans, sales and shorts. JPM and BCS currently quite short both. Nuff said…

By: Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition | Rick's Picks

Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition | Rick's Picks — Sat, 23 May 2009 14:54:18 +0000

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By: richard dudley

richard dudley — Sat, 23 May 2009 11:45:43 +0000

with a weekly key reversal in silver, and validation of bull flag on slv etf, I am all in. Next stop $25.00 silver. Maybe not until 2014. 34 years after Hunt Bros. (fib)

If silver ever closes under $14.00 I will lick the cowboys feet in Times Square.

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Be nice to have some company out there, Richard, if Goldman doesn’t trade for $29. RA

By: Occdude

Occdude — Tue, 19 May 2009 04:46:55 +0000

Rick just wondering if you were writing this from your cabin on Eric Janzens ship the “USS deflation?” http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=97954#post97954

He boldly predicts rising ppi by Q3 2009 and cpi by q4 2009 to no later than q1 2010. Sounds like he’s throwing down the gauntlet Rick, no ambiguity here. The five factors to bring along this surge in prices are credit crisis, currency crisis with energy push inflation from imports, money growth inflation, institutional inflation bias and something called “bankruptcy induced industrial concentration”?huh? I don’t see people flocking to equities in the aforementioned scenarios. Nor do I see them engaging in self destructive consumption in the fiery armegeddon described. I do see these things playing out in the long run, but we’re still “awalkin”.

So what say you of that, Oh mighty purveyor of deflation? I know you and “EJ” go way back. Personally I think that fall will be more than a season after this brief period of brainsickness. We need one more period of capitulation buying by scared money sitting on the sidelines (3 trillion in the bull pen ). The market is headed to 1000 on the S and P which is definitely gut check time. If it lacerates 1000 with conviction look out bears, but the zenith is definitely nigh shortly after.

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Life’s too short to waste even a minute arguing with the likes of Janszen. Let him boldly predict whatever he wants. RA

By: Aenar

Aenar — Mon, 18 May 2009 22:34:52 +0000

Hoye knew about this years in advance. Before Bear Stearns, he called what was happening “the Greatest Train Wreck in History.” As a historian, he has a great insight into the errors of man that repeat, repeat and repeat.

Hoye in May 2008 said:

-All equities would collapse
-Senior currencies get excessively strong during the deleveraging
-Gold gets sold for margin calls
-At the Nadir, gold gets excessively strong as well as miners as banks rush to recapitalize with hard currencies without obligations.

By: tom paine

tom paine — Mon, 18 May 2009 21:57:34 +0000

I can’t fathom today’s more than 200 point rally. What with Chrysler bankrupt and GM as good as, with a slew of mortgage resets about to deal a new blow to the nascient “green sprouts” in the housing sector, with a huge tax on energy being contemplated and interest rates spiking on any sign of market strength, etc., etc., how on earth can people think this situation is analogous to 1983 or whatever?

By: Ross

Ross — Mon, 18 May 2009 14:16:12 +0000

I can’t say much with respect to timing the next down leg-my best guess is it starts by mid summer- but until the PTB (and all others) stop resorting to debt creation as a means to cope with our current predicament we will not even be at the start of a recovery. The marginal productive capacity of debt went to zero in 2003, and from that point on taking on debt became akin to trying to dig oneself out of a deep pit with a shovel. Until debt is allowed to clear the system there will be no green shoots let alone a recovery. There will be no quarter for Keynesianism.

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Yours is a metaphorical summation of Fekete’s thesis: Every dollar the U.S. borrows at this point forward will produce NEGATIVE growth. If true, Fekete is about to drive a well deserved stake through Keynesianism’s heart. RA

By: Jeff Kahn

Jeff Kahn — Mon, 18 May 2009 13:19:57 +0000

I’ve noticed that there is nobody in the entire financial world that doesn’t consider themselves to be a contrarian. All the bulls constantly cite the “unparalleled pessimism out there.” And all the bears cite the constant “we’ve seen the worst” mantra. I think it best to follow the analysis of those who have been unequivocally right about everything so far like Nouriel Roubini, and George Soros (no matter what you think of their politics). Which is why I love this site too.

By: johno

johno — Mon, 18 May 2009 05:42:18 +0000

“…but this is the only time we can recall when there were no optimists on the dais bold enough to challenge a consensus now gloomier, probably, than at any time since the 1930s.”

I would say that the above could be construed as moderately bullish, at least for the intermediate term (months).

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Better that we should play contrary to the simple idiots who see recovery in 2009, don’t you think? RA

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Yes. But when the time is right.

I don’t see the bears getting away with a mere 2 month rally to correct a 17 month fall from Oct ‘07. johno