GS – Goldman Sachs (last: 142.00)

Our presumably infallible stock-market bellwether is about to uncork an 8-point rally, provided it can tackle a not-so-daunting midpoint resistance at 142.32 that lies just 25 cents above yesterday’s peak.  The actual target lies at 150.72, and the way Goldman has been going, that shouldn’t be more than a day’s short-squeeze away. Accordingly, let’s be ready to short up there by buying two October 110 puts (GSVB).  I estimate that they will be trading for around 3.80, but you should be able to narrow it down by watching the bid/offer spread for the puts when the stock gets within a point or so of the target.  The 3.80 guess is likely to be somewhat low rather than high if it misses, since put options tend to pick up volatility as a stock rallies.  I’ve included a snapshot of my option calculator that shows how I arrived at my estimate. Meanwhile, if opportunity should present itself intraday in the form of temporary weakness, we may attempt to leg into a calendar spread above these levels — a strategy that has produced profits for us in the past. Stay tuned!