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From the monthly archives:
June 2009
The July contract is stealing up on a shortable rally target at 17.69. Use a stop-loss of 6-8 ticks if you play this one.
There’s a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1.422 that you can attempt to short with a stop-loss as tight as 7 ticks. If the futures stall at 1.4192, that number could eventually become a launching pad.
The chop-and-slop the last few days has rendered any Hidden Pivot targets that I might proffer useless, if not to say meaningless. I might be tempted to bottom-fish a swoon to 927.80 if it were to occur early in today’s session, but otherwise I’ll be expecting a labored ascent to 942.80 if that Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 940.00 gets brushed aside.
The rally died a couple of ticks shy of our 119^05.5 target yesterday, but I wouldn’t suggest shorting there if buyers get second wind this morning, since we nearly always prefer to initiate trades on the first pass. The futures are due for a rest, but it would be quite impressive if they were able to eke out a little more upside first. Ideally, they would pull back to at least 116^28 to recharge, then signal a new leg up with a booster rally of at least 1^11 points.
Crude has rallied nearly 8% in the last week, but I see no evidence on the daily chart that the surge is likely to continue. Rather, we find dueling impulse legs and therefore the likelihood that quotes are going to bog down in the 65-75 range for a while. The picture would turn very bullish, however, if a thrust were to breach the two look-to-the-left peaks shown in the chart. The higher lies at 79.03.
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Short 119^05.5 with a stop-loss as tight as 119^07.5 if it is reached by noon. That’s my minimum upside projection for the near term, but it should show tradable stopping power. If the pullback occurs as expected, implement a 5-tick trailing stop trailing from 118^22, using 118^14 as a minimum objective. _______ UPDATE (11:25 a.m. EDT): The futures popped this morning to 119^04.5, missing our short offer by a small margin. Cancel the order.
Double support lies at 68.05, since that is not only a Hidden Pivot but also the location of a retracement low made last week on the way north. If the futures close beneath the support, it would imply further slippage over the near term to as low as 64.81 is likely.
Goldman Heating Up, but Will It Spread?
by Rick Ackerman on June 30, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
We thought it would be a good time to look in on our favorite bellwether, Goldman Sachs (GS), since the extraordinarily well-connected banking firm’s shares have been sharply on the rise lately. As long as this is the case, it makes a stock market selloff most unlikely. GS has rapidly emerged from a funk after having spent nearly a month in purgatory – its penance for a wilding spree that that culminated a penny above an important » Read the full article