We set emprical benchmarks because our instincts are so often emotional and therefore unreliable. The benchmark we used yesterday served us well, since it warned that a promising-looking rally was not what it appeared to be. Indeed, after a sharp surge early in the session the futures retreated sharply, giving up most of the day’s gains. The action left a less promising but still buoyant outlook that could power the futures to as high as 949.10 today if bulls gain the upper hand. The pattern is shown in the accompanying chart, and its fulfillment is predicated on a decisive move past the target’s midpoint sibling, 938.30.
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