TLT is stealing up on an important resistance at 96.08. That’s a Hidden Pivot clearly visible on the hourly chart, and if it is exceeded on a closing basis, that would be telegraphing still more strength in the long bond. For now, we should regard 96.08 as a minimum objective, implying that long-term yields have further to fall before they get sticky.
From the monthly archives:
June 2009
If 70.93 has not been exceeded first, you can bottom-fish 67.69 with an initial stop-loss as tight a 10 cents, good through Tuesday. That’s the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the downtrend begun from 72.85 on June 19. Switch to a 25-cent trailing stop if 70.20 is reach on the bounce. Minimum objective: 70.65. _______ UPDATE: 70.93 was exceeded overnight, negating the trade. The new high created a new Hidden Pivot support at 68.05, but it is not suitable for bottom-fishing because it coincides with a visually important low made a couple of days earlier.
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If buyers get second wind, look for a push to as high as 39.89, subject to critical resistance at 38.82.
Things are looking up, given the failure of yesterday’s selloff to reach a midpoint support at 13.765, let alone its 13.610 ‘D’ sibling. Upside potential is to 14.250 if the futures can get past a lesser hidden resistance at 14.015.
A stink bid at 131.53 is advised while a news media with far too much time on its hands pursues the Jobs transplant story.
If crude is going to get traction, it needs to happen now, since the August contract has created its first promising impulse leg on the hourly chart in more than two weeks. The immediate target is 70.85, and although the futures have already exceeded the 69.45 midpoint sibling of the target, they were threatening to dive below ‘C’ on the hourly chart, negating the bullish outlook for the very near-term.
The markets displayed disturbing symptoms of Fed-itis yesterday, spasming up and down even though the central bank did nothing even remotely interesting, let alone earth-shattering. Monetary policy was left unchanged, which is the only thing that could have happened. To say the markets overreacted begs an explanation as to why. We can only infer that there are still many investors who cling to the notion that the central bank can jump-start » Read the full article
Q2 Finale Offers Bears No Respite
by Rick Ackerman on June 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
The short-squeeze mania that sent stocks blithely higher yesterday reminded us that shares are likely to remain erratically buoyant at least until the end of the second quarter. “Rebalancing” has been the name of the game since the bear rally began in early March, and portfolio managers are unlikely to alter their allocation strategy with less than a week to go before they get their final “grades” for the quarter. Meanwhile, if there was » Read the full article