The break on Thursday was a serious move down and left a gap. If this market runs true to form, price should try to close the gap. Right now price has gone through P for the down move at 893. The target price for this move down — what Rick would label ‘D’ — is 859 with support at 876. This is all on the daily chart. The lower time frames have support levels at 881 and 884. The current downside pressure being applied to price at this time on the lower time frames could cure itself during the night session. For price to make an assault on 1000 and 1100, ES would have to go through 957. At this time it would take a 5-point upward retracement to start a bull trend. If short here I would use a 2-point stop and then look for the next move up or down. (Ira Tunik)
In order to stimulate business and keep mortgage rates low the government is doing everything it can to hold interest rates down. How long they will be able to borrow money from the rest of the world at these rates is a major question. In December of last year USU09, the 30-Year Bond future, was trading at 139+; it is now at 119-07. There is still upside pressure being applied to the daily chart, but the indicator is in an extended area of the chart and should turn over soon. To restart a move lower from the current high, price would have to go through 116-20 and then the first price objective would be 113-31. Price has met resistance at the 60-minute target price, D, 119-05, and now price is trying to move higher. The resistance points for the move are 119-14 to 119-20, and then 120-04. I don’t believe that price will reach D at 120-20, but stranger things have happened. (IT)
Unless the futures pop above 956.00 this week, it looks like gravity is fixing to pull them down to at least 899.00. A two-day close beneath 924.00, the midpoint support associated with the target, would likely clinch a decline to the target. However, if you’re looking for a more subtly nuanced turn for the better, it would come today on a 936.40 print. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 924.30, stop 923.90, provided 934.00 is not exceeded first. _______ UPDATE (11:03 a.m.): Bids at 924.30 would have been stopped out for a loss of as much as 0.70, since the Hidden Pivot evinced zero support — in fact became resistance that seemed to persist seven hours later. This adds weight to the 899.00 target, although a thrust today or tomorrow exceeding 936.30 would give bulls a shot at turning thin around.
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The downtrend should find temporary support at 17.50. You could buy there and look for a one-point pop. Use a 25-cent stop. If there is a three-point move higher, look for a total move of six points.
Just Jitters, or is the Bear Back?
by Rick Ackerman on July 6, 2009 2:43 am GMT · 4 comments
Taking their cue from our cautiously optimistic, if factually challenged, Fed chairman, mainstream purveyors of news have been spewing propaganda for months about a “recovery” in the second half. But do investors actually believe this poppycock? We never would have imagined so, at least not before Thursday. But when the broad averages plunged on weak payroll numbers released ahead of the holiday, they buttressed the » Read the full article