Monday, July 6, 2009

Unless the futures pop above _____ this week, it looks like gravity is fixing to pull them down to at least _____. A two-day close beneath ____, the midpoint support associated with the target, would likely clinch a decline to the target. However, if you're looking for a more subtly nuanced turn for the better, it would come today on a _____ print.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at ____, stop _____, provided 934.00 is not exceeded first.

In order to stimulate business and keep mortgage rates low the government is doing everything it can to hold interest rates down.  How long they will be able to borrow money from the rest of the world at these rates is a major question.   In December of last year USU09, the 30-Year Bond future, was trading at 139+;  it is now at 119-07.   There is still upside pressure being applied to the daily chart, but the indicator is in an extended area of the chart and should turn over soon.   To restart a move lower from the current high, price would have to go through 116-20 and then the first price objective would be 113-31.  Price has met resistance at the 60-minute target price, D, 119-05, and now price is trying to move higher.   The resistance points for the move are 119-14 to 119-20, and then 120-04.  I don't believe that price will reach D at 120-20, but stranger things have happened. (IT)

There was nothing on TV tonight, we weren't going out, and I finished the book I was reading, so I started to look at charts.  After Friday there is nothing that I looked that said higher.  If you are long I would definitely tighten up your stops before the opening on Monday.  I looked at about 40 big time stocks and ETFs and found that all have hit an entry price for a down move and there was dowside pressure being applied to all of them. Looking at daily charts, SPX has a P of 852, the INDU found temporary support at 8271 and the next support area would be 8114.  If that number is hit there is a longer term cycle with a projection down to 7591.  On the quad Qs the short cycle projects down to 34+ . It should be noted that none of these prices would void the up moves.  We are in for some big time moves unless there are some very good earnings reports.   There should be a try to close the opening gap created on Friday.  Whether it will be successful or not we will have to wait and see.  If it does occur it should provide a good place to short this market until things indicate a change in direction can happen. This is just one man's opinion.  Ira.

Taking their cue from our cautiously optimistic, if factually challenged, Fed chairman, mainstream purveyors of news have been spewing propaganda for months about a "recovery" in the second half. But do investors actually believe this poppycock? We never would have imagined so, at least not before Thursday. But when the broad averages plunged on weak payroll numbers released ahead of the holiday, they buttressed the conclusion that Wall Street was genuinely surprised by the economy's punk performance. How punk? In percentage terms, unemployment increased by just a tenth of a percentage point, to 9.5%. But what seemed to throw investors for a loop was a spurt in job losses, which totaled 467,000 last month. That is significantly higher than in May, suggesting that the jobs component of the economy is getting worse, not better.   This could not have surprised those who get their economic news from newsletters rather than from the major networks, CNBC, and other officially sanctioned mouthpieces of the status quo.  In general the newsletter world has been far more bearish on the economy than prime-time peddlers of the Commerce Department's statistical swill. While the latter tend to interpret, say, a moderate slowing of the collapse in home prices for a month or two as great news for the builders and for the economy as a whole, the latter tend to see a meaningless statistical blip. Speaking for ourselves, you could say we see the glass as half-full - but of hemlock. One economic fact alone should give any optimist pause, to wit: There are at least a half-dozen state governments teetering on the edge of bankruptcy - including California, the world's sixth largest economy -- and quite a few more in very serious distress. Under the circumstances, it seems incredible that anyone besides Kudlow or Abby Cohen

The break on Thursday was a serious move down and left a gap.  If this market runs true to form, price should try to close the gap.  Right now price has gone through P for the down move at 893.  The target price for this move down -- what Rick would label 'D' -- is ____ with support at _____.  This is all on the daily chart.   The lower time frames have support levels at ____ and _____.   The current downside pressure being applied to price at this time on the lower time frames could cure itself during the night session.   For price to make an assault on 1000 and 1100, ES would have to go through _____.   At this time it would take a 5-point upward retracement to start a bull trend.   If short here, use a 2.00-point stop and look for the next move up or down. (Ira Tunik)