In today’s Side Bets, I’ve flagged a couple of bearish targets for the Dow Industrial Average that look like lock-ups. They corroborate a darkening picture for the E-Mini S&Ps that has been detailed by Ira in his recent analyses. While the targets can be bottom-fished, if they prove flimsy they will also be warning that the downtrend may be gathering strength.
COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
This chart like so many other index charts doesn't seem to want to come down. There has been massive downside pressure being applied to the daily chart and price hasn't even moved down 50%. If there are any surprises with the earnings reports there could some fireworks and increased volatility. As you can see from the chart price is approaching support at the ___ level. I am using the round number as there are several support prices around this level on various charts. For price to start a retracement higher price would have to go through ___ and then it could rally in 1 point increments. The up numbers are based upon the current low. The pressure indicator has entered an over extended area on the chart. ...
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The point 'B' of the pattern shown is about as sausage-like as it gets, having failed to take out the May 28 low at 881.50, but it may be overshadowed in this case by an overall symmetry that is too graceful to ignore. If the downtrend from the June 11 high plays out accordingly, we should look for the futures to bottom at ____ (or possibly at _____ if the one-off 'A' at 942.75 prevails). I won't speculate as to what might happened when either or both of these targets is reached, but a failure to rebound would naturally be bearish for the longer term. Either number can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss, but it will be less risky to enter on the "camouflage" of a subtle reversal occurring from near those pivots....
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SIDE BETS for Wednesday
The same sausage-y pattern I’ve flagged in the E-Mini S&P projects to 8035 for this vehicle, or perhaps 7964 if any lower. I would rate these numerbs as high-confidence, since the Indoos spent the last two days turning the midpoint support into resistance.
The Dollar Index may feel like it’s revving for a push higher, but I have my doubts it will get very far, since the last two thrusts narrowly failed to get past some prior peaks. This isn’t the way frisky bulls act when they are ready to run.
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On Foundation of Lies, Recovery Is Impossible
by Rick Ackerman on July 8, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 3 comments
Gold continues to hang tough in the midst of oil’s nasty selloff. Although August crude has fallen more than 14%, from last Tuesday’s peak of $73.38, a Comex Gold futures contract expiring the same month lost just 2.5% of its value during the same period, falling from $947 to $924. The fact that gold has not plummeted in sympathy with oil strongly hints that it will be quite feisty when selling in the oil pits finally lets up. It was triggered by fears that the alleged global economic recovery is much weaker than had been thought. One might have expected investors to be prepared for this turn of events, but apparently » Read the full article