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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
In just a week’s time, T-bond futures have given up more than half of their impressive gains from the June lows, creating a nasty impulse leg on the intraday charts in the process. Now, they are probing for support which, from a Hidden Pivot standpoint, could materialize as high as 115^28.5, or at 115^14 if any lower. However, if the lower number is exceeded on a closing basis, we could see further weakness over the near term to as low as 113^30. _______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m.): The 115^14 target caught the low of this morning’s swoon within a single tick. The futures have since recovered by nearly a full handle, but if they should revisit the low and close beneath it, 113^30 would become the new downside objective.
Is the dollar breaking down? The burden of proof has returned to the bulls, since DXY has been unable to generate any impressive impulse legs on the hourly chart since bottoming in early June. Now, some bearish impulse legs have begun to occur on the hourly, so we’ll use the 76.59 target shown in the inset as a minimum downside objective. The sibling midpoint of that number is 79.03, a support that was approached last week within 0.10 points. If it gives way this week and is exceeded on a closing basis, a further decline to at least 76.59 would become an odds-on bet.
The most useful benchmark I can cite right now is 959.90, a midpoint resistance derived from the pattern shown in the accompanying chart. It’s not very compelling because the larger pattern has experienced so many disruptions, but we can use it as a minimum upside objective for the near term nonetheless. Its sibling ‘D’ target lies at 1014.90, a number mentioned here before. As noted earlier, the most powerfully bullish signal we could see would be an impulsive rally that exceeds both of the numbered peaks without taking a corrective breather.
We were unable to roll our calendar spread because the August 10 calls we’d needed to short for 0.35 traded no higher than 0.22. Since we covered the short July 10 calls for 0.05, we now hold four September 10 calls effectively for a CREDIT of 0.55 apiece. That means the worst we can do, no matter where the stock is trading at expiration in September, is make $220 on our position. Let’s continue trying to build more edge into it by offering four August 10 calls short for 0.35, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (July 23): With SLW trading as high today as 9.47, our order to short four August 10 calls for 0.35 filled easily. That means we now hold the September 10-August 10 calendar spead effectively for a 0.90 CREDIT, plus its current value (around 0.25 at the moment). Do nothing further for now.
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SIDE BETS for Monday
Apple looks likely to cruise on up to at least 157.53, the nearest Hidden Pivot above with any potential stopping power. Shorts from that level could use a stop-loss s tight as 15-20 cents.
There are no especially compelling targets above, but a Hidden Pivot resistance at 173.10 that comes off the 180-minute chart can serve nonetheless as a minimum obside objective for now.
We can use 9158 as an upside target, although a pullback to the 8622 midpoint associated with that Hidden Pivot may be necessary before the Indoos can mount an assault on early June’s high at 8875.
This Just In... for Monday
545 PEOPLE vs 300 Million
By Charlie Reese
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against
inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes? » Read the full article
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Bureaucracy, Taxpayers Headed for a Collision
by Rick Ackerman on July 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 7 comments
The headline atop the front page of this morning’s Boulder Camera suggests a city struggling diligently to balance its budget: “Work-Week Options Eyed”. Reading this, one might infer that the city is contemplating unpaid furloughs or some other means of reducing payroll outlays, right? That would be entirely appropriate, given that Boulder faces a $5 million budget shortfall next year. But that is not what the story is about. In the first place, it is not the city that is “eyeing” changes in the work week, but the workers themselves. And what they have in mind is nothing so onerous as unpaid work days; » Read the full article