Tuesday, July 21, 2009

I've provided a rally target for the Dow Industrials, since there is more clarity in the chart than I could find in the E-Mini S&P's hourly bars.  There's a short you can attempt in the Diamonds along the way, but if it gets stopped out bears should dive for cover.

The futures will need to pop above a midpoint resistance at 117^08 to "actualize" the potential of yesterday's thrust. Thereafter, a Hidden Pivot at 117^28 would be the minimum upside objective.

The 173.10 target given here earlier is still viable, so keep it in mind if you have a hankering to short this little sonofabitch.  I'd suggest a stop-loss no wider than 22 cents.

The futures look bound for a minimum 14.015, but you might look for a tightly stopped buying opportunity on a pullback to 13.540, since that's the midpoint pivot associated with the target. You could also buy a camouflaged entry on the first abc uptrend that occurs after 13.540 is touched.

A Hidden Pivot at 78.49 can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term, and a close below it would be quite bearish.

I haven't offered a Pick of the Day in some time, but the delicacy of today's upside target will lend itself to the kind of tight stop-loss that should appeal to the risk-averse novice. The target lies at precisely _____, so I'll recommend shorting _____ with an _____ stop-loss. To initiate the trade, you can short the Diamonds (200 shares) or buy two August 89 puts (DAVTK). The latter should be trading for around _____, but you may be able to improve on the price by monitoring the bid/asked spread as the underlying approaches the target.

The ____ rallly target given here yesterday still obtains, although the futures may have to pull back to as low as _____ to get a running start for the next leap.  The turn could also come from ______, a Hidden Pivot, but I'd suggest using the lower number and a 0.70 stop-loss if you're going to take a stab at bottom-fishing.

For purposes of forecasting, the Indoos' hourly chart provides much greater clarity than that of the E-Mini S&P, so let me give it a whirl: _____ is the target that leaps out at me, and you can see its provenance in the accompanying chart. Short the E-Mini DOW (NQ) or the Diamonds by interpolating the target, but I wouldn't risk much, since you'll be stepping in front of a speeding freight train.  I've used the one-off 'A' here because it's so pretty, but if it is the lower 'A' which eventually determines the target, the top would occur at _____. I've used two decimal places because I like the way this pattern looks.

The futures are close to bumping into something solid -- i.e., a series of highs recorded in early June that were once fancied to be the "head" of yet one more worthless head-and-shoulder pattern. Hidden Pivots aside, my hunch is that rallies do not shred shorts with the vocaciousnesss of this one, only to fail at some marquee resistance like last month's peaks.  Whatever happens will be easily scalp-able on the lesser charts, I am sure, but there will not likely be a way to comfortably ride whatever trend, if any, develops from these levels. If it is to create a potent impulse leg on the daily chart, however, the key look-to-the-left peak that must be surpassed lies at ______, just a speck on the chart.