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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
PICK OF THE DAY for Tuesday
I haven't offered a Pick of the Day in some time, but the delicacy of today's upside target will lend itself to the kind of tight stop-loss that should appeal to the risk-averse novice. The target lies at precisely _____, so I'll recommend shorting _____ with an _____ stop-loss. To initiate the trade, you can short the Diamonds (200 shares) or buy two August 89 puts (DAVTK). The latter should be trading for around _____, but you may be able to improve on the price by monitoring the bid/asked spread as the underlying approaches the target.
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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
The futures are close to bumping into something solid — i.e., a series of highs recorded in early June that were once imagined to be the “head” of yet one more worthless head-and-shoulders pattern. Hidden Pivots aside, my hunch is that rallies do not shred shorts with the voraciousnesss of this one, only to fail at some marquee resistance point like last month’s peaks. Whatever happens will be easily scalp-able on the lesser charts, I am sure, but there will not likely be a way to comfortably ride whatever trend, if any, develops from these levels. If the next surge is to create a potent impulse leg on the daily chart, however, the key look-to-the-left peak that must be surpassed lies at 1002.00 (November 4) – just a speck on the chart. If you are hoping to short a trend failure up here, I’d suggest looking for impulsive a-b’s on the three-minute chart. They were in short supply yesterday, which in itself hints of more strength to come.
For purposes of forecasting, the Indoos’ hourly chart provides much greater clarity than that of the E-Mini S&P, so let me give it a whirl: 9158.31 is the target that leaps out at me, and you can see its provenance in the accompanying chart. Short the E-Mini DOW (NQ) or the Diamonds by interpolating the target, but I wouldn’t risk much, since you’ll be stepping in front of a speeding freight train. I’ve used the one-off ‘A’ here because it’s so pretty, but if it is the lower ‘A’ which eventually determines the target, the top would occur at 9170.34. I’ve used two decimal places because I like the way this pattern looks.
The 959.90 rally target given here yesterday still obtains, although the futures may have to pull back to as low as 943.60 to get a running start for the next leap. The turn could also come from 945.10, a Hidden Pivot, but I’d suggest using the lower number and a 0.70 stop-loss if you’re going to take a stab at bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (11:05 a.m.): It is moderately encouraging that the futures are having such trouble pulling back to midpoint supports. However, there does not seem to be muich buying enthusiasm at the moment to capitalize on this with a push to 959.90.
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SIDE BETS for Tuesday
A Hidden Pivot at 78.49 can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term, and a close below it would be quite bearish.
The futures look bound for a minimum 14.015, but you might look for a tightly stopped buying opportunity on a pullback to 13.540, since that’s the midpoint pivot associated with the target. You could also buy a camouflaged entry on the first abc uptrend that occurs after 13.540 is touched.
The 173.10 target given here earlier is still viable, so keep it in mind if you have a hankering to short this little sonofabitch. I’d suggest a stop-loss no wider than 22 cents.
The futures will need to pop above a midpoint resistance at 117^08 to “actualize” the potential of yesterday’s thrust. Thereafter, a Hidden Pivot at 117^28 would be the minimum upside objective.
This Just In... for Tuesday
Rick Ackerman gives his views on the continuation of the rising conventional stock market in this concluding segment of The Korelin Report. Click here for audio.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Why Gold Should Anchor a Portfolio
by Rick Ackerman on July 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
(Following is the fourth in a series of articles on gold by Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant and lifelong resident of New York City.)
Recently I discussed some of the reasons investors often fall short. Today I want to help bring clarity to your investment goals and also explain why gold should hold a central place in your portfolio. If you succeed in these two areas, you’ll not only prosper, you will also be prepared for the incredible changes and shocks that I believe are coming.
As Richard Russell always stresses, succeeding in the stock market is a lifetime learning process. At age 84 or so, he is still working diligently at it. As we have all learned, making money in the stock market is not as easy as the hucksters would have us believe. Success comes not just from market knowledge but from learning from our mistakes. And it is » Read the full article