Thursday, July 23, 2009

I am no longer recommending a short from 159.88, since, if Apple is consolidating from its recent push to 158.73, it will likely better the target on the next thrust.  The target itself remains viable, however.

The futures look imminently bound for at least 13.915, a Hidden Pivot target that is analogous to the one trumpeted in today's Gold tout.

In the chat room Wednesday morning, appending Ira's analysis, I posted a _____ minimum objective for September NatGas. Let me mention that this roughly corresponds to a _____ target in this vehicle. That's a Hidden Pivot, and it would be a bullish sign for at least the near term if it is exceeded without much of a fight. 

Is this rally about to deliver on the promise of the strong trend begun in mid-June? If so we should see  the futures settle above _____ by no later than Friday. That's a midpoint resistance whose 'D' sibling lies at _____, and although it has been slightly exceeded intraday (by two ticks), a more conclusive breach is needed to clinch the bullish case for the near term. 

Much of the chop-and-slop of the last two days has taken place above June's highs, so it is logical for us to infer that this is consolidation for another upthrust. We're better off spectating nonetheless, even if the lesser charts are capable of providing a bit of camouflage for the nimble day trader. As of early Wednesday evening, a minor set-up promised to deliver _____, provided this Hidden Pivot's midpoint sibling at _____ is surpassed before _____ is breached to the downside.

Perhaps it is merely boredom that is inspiring new rally targets each day, but the one that caught my eye Wednesday evening is _____.  Its provenance is shown in the accompanying chart, and either it or a lesser Hidden Pivot as _____ looks likely to contain the next thrust. The lower number is now my minimum upside objective for the near term, but either target can be shorted by scalpers with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks (0.40).

With the dog days of summer fast approaching, we wondered whether every small-town newspaper in America is entertaining readers these days with the same sort of lurid stories that fill the Boulder (Colorado) Camera. Boulder is not exactly the kind of place where you'd expect to find luridness in newsworthy quantities. Half the people who live here are trust-fund babies who, one would surmise, spend their days hiking the local trails, writing letters to the editor, or working diligently to protect the rights of prairie dogs. Since these folks mostly lead quiet, unexceptionable lives, it must be the other half of the population that keeps turning up on the police blotter -- or still worse, in the local morgue.  Today's dead-man story concerned a 19-year-old graduate of Fairview High School (my wife's alma mater) who OD'd on something called - if you haven't heard - poppy pod tea.  This ultra-hip beverage contains opium, and although it is sold via mail order and over-the-counter, there is evidently enough opium in poppy pod tea to kill someone who drinks too much of it, especially when it has steeped for a long time.  Death by Tea  This was the second poppy-pod tea fatality in Boulder this year, the first having failed, apparently, to convince at least a few dopers hereabouts that the risk of death outweighs the pleasure of a good high. In both cases, the victims drank the tea, fell asleep, and never woke up. Yesterday's incident was deemed sufficiently newsworthy (i.e., lurid) to go out on the Associated Press A-wire, so you may have read about it in your own local paper.  In other Boulder-area sordidness, a six-car wreck on Highway 36 was reported after a few barrels fell off a truck and the driver tried to retrieve them. What made this