Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Dollar Index didn't get much bounce yesterday, considering how close it came to breaching a major prior low.  That's bearish, but we'll give DXY the benefit of the doubt if it can muster a thrust today above  _____, a peak-let recorded June 20 on the way down. Move convincing, however, would be a push by Wednesday exceeding the look-to-the-left high at _____ made on July 15.

Bears looked tired at the closing bell yesterday and may have used up their selling power for the week unless they get some help in the form of bad news. There are no high-profile earnings reports due out, only the likely confirmation of Sotomayor by the Judiciary Committee.  While that may be bad news for many who cherish the U.S. Constitution, it's not likely to move the markets.

Buyers will need to push the futures past 3.804 today to demonstrate their resolve. If they succeed without allowing a dip first below 3.721, a further rally to as high as 3.887 would become likely over the near term.

Any buying this morning should lift the futures to at least 14.115, but if that Hidden Pivot is exceeded by more than a few ticks, look for a second-wind surge to 14.175

Google looks capable of reaching 453.32 on the next pop, or perhaps 458.63 if the stock exceeds that number by more than about 20 cents.

Gold popped a dime above a 959.90 rally target we were using, implying that the next thrust should carry to ____, the first minor Hidden Pivot resistance above it. Please note in the accompanying chart that just a smidgen more than that -- specifically, ____ -- would be needed to kick the buying spree into a higher gear. 

There's a Hidden Pivot at ____ we can short that is equivalent to the rally target given in today's forecast for the cash Dow. Its provenance is shown in the chart (inset), and I'd be surprised if we didn't get a tradable pullback.  Officially, we'll buy two September 90 puts (DAVUL), stop ____, but you can change the order in any way that suits your style.  I estimate that the puts will be trading for around ____, and you can use that number with a limit order  to simplify things.  If you do, however, you'll need to make sure that your bid is not executed with the underlying stock trading above _____.

Just one more turn of the screw -- on the thumbs of shorts -- should push the Indoos the remaining distance to the _____ target drum-rolled here earlier. That number is a Hidden Pivot, but I am not recommending shorting there aggressively because its pedigree is not the finest.  However, it should serve just fine as an indicator of more strength to come, since an easy move through the resistance, or better yet a close above it, would be quite bullish for the near term. 

(Following is the fifth in a series of article on gold by Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant and investor based in New York City. At bottom are some specific stock recommendations.) Very few Americans own gold in any form. Even though gold's price has risen each year since 2001, about the only time we hear gold mentioned is in the ubiquitous "cash for gold" TV commercials. Don't you wonder who has any gold or jewelry left to sell?  The way it's shunned, you might think gold causes swine flu or greenhouse emissions. It is most baffling to me to see our profligate nation diligently avoiding the most rewarding investment of the last decade. Under the circumstances, it is hardly surprising that only a miniscule number of investors have ever ventured into the most speculative field of gold, the exploration companies. These small and unproven companies might have market capitalization of anywhere from $5 million to over $200 million. Some contain proven reserves, while some are still searching for the mythical El Dorado. But even to many gold experts and believers they remain intensely speculative and risky, perhaps leaving you to wonder, why bother?  Here are some of the reasons often given for avoiding them.  Only a tiny fraction of these properties ever get into production They are vastly undercapitalized. Small diluting financings pop up more often than do the shares Many are run by promoters who pump up the stock so they can unload their shares.  They Mine Money  Now there might be some truth in these claims if  these were ordinary times. But just consider that if you had applied these same arguments in the early 1990s, you would have missed out on the greatest speculative binge of our time - the technology-stock boom.  (Actually, most of us did miss it.)