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From the monthly archives:
July 2009
Yesterday’s outside day also created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, hinting of more strength to come. Pivoteers might also notice that the rally has camouflaged strength, since it left intact a key high on the intraday charts recorded last Thursday.
A midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 13.540 can serve as a minimum downside target, provided the point ‘C’ high of the pattern it’s associated with, 13.760, is not exceeded first.
Yesterday’s low fell a tick above the 50% retracement line relative to the July 13 bottom, but if the futures were to go still lower today they’d hit a theoretical support at 927.50 that equates to a 0.618 retracement. These numbers will probably serve as well as any Hidden Pivot that I can identify (one of which caught yesterday’s low fairly closely — i.e., within less than 1.00 point).
The futures have struggled for two days to push above a 981.00 midpoint-pivot resistance, to little avail. If they can settle above it, however, or exceed it intraday by more than a point, that would imply more immediate upside potential over the near term to as high as 999.50. For bulls, trouble of at least a minor degree would begin with a print at 962.25.
The 91.96 rally target given here yesterday still looks like a good place to try shorting, so we’ll use the same game plan, bidding for two September 90 puts (DAVUL), stop 92.12. They should be selling for around 2.15 if you want to use a limit order, but pull the bid if DIA exceeds the target. I have also plotted a hypothetical buying strategy that would apply if the Diamonds zig-zag their way down to a midpoint support early in Wednesday’s session.
RIMM looks like it’s struggling to reach an 83.14 target, but a close above that Hidden Pivot’s associative midpoint at 77.77 should send it on its way.
The Dollar Index didn’t get much bounce yesterday, considering how close it came to breaching a major prior low. That’s bearish, but we’ll give DXY the benefit of the doubt if it can muster a thrust today above 79.30, a peak-let recorded June 20 on the way down. More convincing, however, would be a push by Wednesday exceeding the look-to-the-left high at 79.78 made on July 15.
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Should They Risk Missing a Payment?
by Rick Ackerman on July 29, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 4 comments
You can see the fine hand of government at work in the homeowner rescue package that has been struggling to get off the ground since its inception last spring. The goal was to reduce foreclosures by lowering mortgage payments for homeowners who were struggling. But struggling how badly? For would-be lenders, that can be a tricky question to answer, and they are understandably reluctant to commit to the program without clear guidelines from the federal government. As it stands, some homeowners are being told » Read the full article