Buyers will need to push the futures past 3.804 today to demonstrate their resolve. If they succeed without allowing a dip first below 3.721, a further rally to as high as 3.887 would become likely over the near term.
From the monthly archives:
July 2009
Any buying this morning should lift the futures to at least 14.115, but if that Hidden Pivot is exceeded by more than a few ticks, look for a second-wind surge to 14.175
Google looks capable of reaching 453.32 on the next pop, or perhaps 458.63 if the stock exceeds that number by more than about 20 cents.
Gold popped a dime above a 959.90 rally target we were using, implying that the next thrust should carry to 966.50, the first minor Hidden Pivot resistance above it. Please note in the accompanying chart that just a smidgen more than that — specifically, 966.80 — would be needed to kick the buying spree into a higher gear. ______ UPDATE (11:15 a.m. EDT): Gold is getting whacked gratuitously today, with the August contract down more than $14. The actual low is 939.10, a precise midpoint support that if broken will imply more downside to as low as 932.90 over the near term.
There’s a Hidden Pivot at 91.96 we can short that is equivalent to the rally target given in today’s forecast for the cash Dow. Its provenance is shown in the chart (inset), and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a tradable pullback. Officially, we’ll buy two September 90 puts (DAVUL), stop 92.12, but you can change the order in any way that suits your style. I estimate that the puts will be trading for around 2.15, and you can use that number with a limit order to simplify things. If you do, however, you’ll need to make sure that your bid is not executed with the underlying stock trading above 91.96.
Just one more turn of the screw — on the thumbs of shorts — should push the Indoos the remaining distance to the 9158 target drum-rolled here earlier. That number is a Hidden Pivot, but I am not recommending shorting there aggressively because its pedigree is not the finest. However, it should serve just fine as an indicator of more strength to come, since an easy move through the resistance, or better yet a close above it, would be quite bullish for the near term.
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I like a Hidden Pivot at 14.020 as a minimum upside objective for the near term, but any higher would imply 14.385.
These days, we speak of the price action in Gold as “bullish” in the same way we would describe a patient on life support as “alive”. It’ll get better, I’m sure, but probably not before the Great Bear Rally of 2009 (/2010??) ends with either a bang or a whimper. I’ve tried to sound encouraging by saying Gold futures are at least tradable while we wait, but after snoozing through Friday’s dirge, I’m not so sure. Check out the graph if you want to see a picture of accumulation so quiet that a mere $10 rally would be a relative thunderclap. _______ UPDATE (11:21 a.m.): Gold has topped today a dime above a modest target given here earlier, a Hidden Pivot at 959.90. You can go back to sleep now.
Junior Golds Offer ‘Ridiculous’ Leverage
by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 9 comments
(Following is the fifth in a series of article on gold by Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant and investor based in New York City. At bottom are some specific stock recommendations.)
Very few Americans own gold in any form. Even though gold’s price has risen each year since 2001, about the only time we hear gold mentioned is in the ubiquitous “cash for gold” TV commercials. Don’t you wonder who has any gold or jewelry left to sell? The way it’s shunned, you might think gold causes swine flu or greenhouse emissions. It is most baffling to me to see our profligate nation diligently avoiding the most rewarding investment of » Read the full article