In the chat room Wednesday morning, appending Ira’s analysis, I posted a 4.183 minimum objective for September NatGas. Let me mention that this roughly corresponds to a 14.23 target in this vehicle. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and it would be a bullish sign for at least the near term if it is exceeded without much of a fight. ______ UPDATE (11:20 a.m.) : Nice. UNG has collapsed to 13.25 after peaking today at 14.00. In theory, longs would have been using a 10-cent stop-loss from 14.00, since only 23 cents of profit potential remained at that point.
From the monthly archives:
July 2009
Is this rally about to deliver on the promise of the strong trend begun in mid-June? If so we should see the futures settle above 118^14.5 by no later than Friday. That’s a midpoint resistance whose ‘D’ sibling lies at 119^22.5, and although it has been slightly exceeded intraday (by two ticks), a more conclusive breach is needed to clinch the bullish case for the near term.
Much of the chop-and-slop of the last two days has taken place above June’s highs, so it is logical for us to infer that this is consolidation for another upthrust. We’re better off spectating nonetheless, even if the lesser charts are capable of providing a bit of camouflage for the nimble day trader. As of early Wednesday evening, a minor set-up promised to deliver 960.50, provided this Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 954.50 is decisively exceeded before 948.25 is breached to the downside. ______ UPDATE (11:12 a.m.): With short-squeeze histrionics operating at full-strength today, we should keep in mind the 998.50 target given here earlier. That remains my minimum upside objective for the cycle begun on July 8.
Perhaps it is merely boredom that is inspiring new rally targets each day, but the one that caught my eye Wednesday evening is 966.50. Its provenance is shown in the accompanying chart, and either it or a lesser Hidden Pivot as 968.10 looks likely to contain the next thrust. The lower number is now my minimum upside objective for the near term, but either target can be shorted by scalpers with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks (0.40).
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In after-hours trading Tuesday, AAPL had somewhat exceeded the 157.53 Hidden Pivot that we were using as a minimum upside target. The indicated high as of around 9 p.m. EDT was 158.40, which if correct would imply the rally is likely to continue to a target of higher degree. The logical number thereof would be 170.33, so we’ll use it as our new objective. It implies an amazingly steep ascent and an ABC pattern with a trajectory that I cannot recall seeing before. ______ UPDATE (1:54 p.m.): During this morning’s tutorial session, we turned up a new target at 159.88 that not only looks likely to be reached, but also short-able, stop 160.01.
The futures traded up to 89.23 on the opening bar yesterday, stopping out a Pick of the Day short at 89.21 for a tiny loss. (If you were slow to react, or if you used a slightly wider stop, you could conceivably have come away with a profit, since the futures never traded above 89.27 and spent nearly the entire day below that number. The intraday low was 88.10.) The fact that the upside target was exceeded, albeit only slightly, suggests still higher prices are coming. If so, look for a pop today to 90.65. a Hidden Pivot that you can try shorting with a stop-loss at 90.71. You’ll be on your own if the order fills, but don’t hesitate to nail down a partial profit on a pullback of as little as 15 cents.
Even in Boulder, the News Is Lurid
by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2009 12:12 am GMT · 3 comments
With the dog days of summer fast approaching, we wondered whether every small-town newspaper in America is entertaining readers these days with the same sort of lurid stories that fill the Boulder (Colorado) Camera. Boulder is not exactly the kind of place where you’d expect to find luridness in newsworthy quantities. Half the people who live here are trust-fund babies who, one would surmise, spend their days hiking the local trails, writing » Read the full article