Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The Diamonds looked bound for at least 93.65 over the very near term when the clock ran out yesterday, so this vehicle is probably best traded from the long side if it doesn't gap too ferociously above yesterday's highs near 93.  The benefit of camouflage seems unlikely, but my hunch is that a straight point 'X' entry on the very lesser charts will work if it is the first such opportunity of the day.

A Hidden Pivot target at 14.36 is as high as I can project using the daily chart, so any progress above it, even a few pennies, would hint of more strength to come.

The Dollar Index will have a chance to turn from 77.07, a Hidden Pivot support, but even a bounce from that number would not negate an even lower, more important, target at 76.59 given here earlier.

A thrust above _____ is still needed to refresh the bullish trend on the daily chart.  However, if the futures pull back below _____today, that would imply they are not ready for a surge past 1000 in August. Night owls should look for a re-test of the _____ low made at 3:55 p.m. EDT, since its breach would portend more weakness to as low as _____.

Short _____, stop _____. This trade is based on two Hidden Pivots that coincide not far above, respectively, at _____ and ______.  The recommendation would be featured as a Pick of  the Day but for the fact that it may attract interest in night markets that are too thin for comfort. If the expected pullback from the target hits 1005.25, you'll be on your own.

The S&P 500 Index played footsies with the 1000 barrier yesterday, but bears looking eagerly for a major top shouldn't rely too heavily on the stopping power of this benchmark. One reason is that Dow 10,000, a marquee number with greater importance, is still 700 points away. We should also mention that at yesterday's closing price of 9286, the Indoos lay almost 200 points shy of a 9476 target that we flagged a while back as a minimum rally objective. There is also Goldman Sachs, a favorite bellwether of ours that we've been expecting to reach a minimum 173.10. Yesterday the stock pushed as high as 166.29 before settling back to 164 to catch its breath, but it looked feisty enough to cover the remaining distance to the target without much effort. Taken together, these unachieved rally targets suggest the bull still has some running room, although it's possible that Dow 9476 could prove to be a rally-stopper. That number is a "Hidden Pivot" resistance, and it is sufficiently well defined on the daily chart to be considered reliable within about 10-15 points.  That means that if the Dow trades above 9491 intraday, or settles for two consecutive days above 9476, significantly higher highs - in this case, Dow 10,000 - would become more likely, if not quite yet an odds-on bet. Goldman's Running Start The rally in the broad averages dates back to March 9 officially, but as you can see in the chart above, Goldman shares got a running start that began more than three months earlier. The stock's trajectory has also been quite a bit steeper than that of the broad averages, and that is why we have regarded it as a key bellwether all along - a high beta stock with the power to pull other stocks