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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
We were looking to get short at 95.61, but let’s lower our sights for now to a lesser Hidden Pivot at 93.83. Buy two September 93 puts (DAVUO), which should be trading for around 2.40. You can use a limit order at that price if you’d prefer to park the order with your broker, but be sure to stop yourself out if the underlying stock touches 93.01. _____ UPDATE (12:25 p.m. EDT): The day’s obligatory short-squeeze, catalyzed by “news” of lower-than-”expected” new jobless claims, produced a gap up to 93.35 on the opening — not quite enough to fill our short offer. Cancel the order for now, even though the target remains theoretically viable.
There’s a midpoint support at 996.00 that night owls can use to bottom-fish, but I’d risk no more than three ticks on this, bidding 996.25, stop 995.75. If the stop is hit, that would be telegraphing more weakness down to as low as 988.50 over the very near-term. Although the 1008.25 rally target is still valid in theory, its potential usefulness has been invalidated by tedium. ______ UPDATE (12:32 p.m. EDT): The latest installment of pump-and-dump produced a high in the opening minutes at 1007.75, so you should consider our target spent. This little hoax will have caught more than the usual share of bulls flat-footed, so don’t expect a rally into positive territory today.
Yesterday’s gratuitous ups and downs left the Dow a little less than 200 points shy of the 9476 target we’ve been held in mind. More immediately, there’s a lesser resistance at 9331 that we can use to gauge the strength of any uptrend that develops today, and another at 9375 if the first number is breached by more than 3-4 points. Alternatively, the Indoos would need to drop below 9133 today to turn the hourly chart bearish. _____ UPDATE (1:01 p.m.): Today’s opening bar spurt missed the 9331 target by a whopping 6 points — and no, I cannot tell you why so many thrusts and swoons lately have been missing our Hidden Pivot targets by inches and centimeters. But yes, it is becoming annoying.
The Dollar Index seems reluctant to fall the last few inches to a 76.58 target given here earlier. If, instead, DXY were to surge above 78.49 first, that would be the likely start of a major bear rally. More immediately, it would take a pop above 77.71 today to put bulls back in charge of the minor trend.
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SIDE BETS for Thursday
My minimum downside target over the near term is 115^14.5, but the usefulness of this Hidden Pivot for bottom-fishing has been compromised by its close prximity to an intraday low made a week ago. Alternativly, a 116^19 print overnight or in the early going Thursday would turn the lesser charts quite bullish.
Apple is stealing up on a 170.55 rally target that could show some stopping power. Long-term longs should pay heed, and traders can short there with a stop-loss as tight as 15 cents.
Expect the next thrust to take the futures up to a tradable top at 1.4192, a Hidden Pivot that references 1.3416 (May 17) as an ‘A’ low on the hourly chart.
A Hidden Pivot at 3.1354 that comes from the weekly chart is as high as I can project for now. It is a Hidden Pivot, and it’s shortable.
My minimum upside projection for the near term is 979.00, but the futures could pull back as far as 953.60 to get some running room. Above the target, at 1016.60, is a Hidden Pivot of greater degree mentioned here earlier.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Options Shrink Risk in Silver Wheaton
by Rick Ackerman on August 6, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 1 comment
Because our immediate outlook for silver turned very bullish recently, we took steps yesterday to protect profits in a key precious-metals stock that we hold, Silver Wheaton (SLW). It was four months ago, in early April, that we advised subscribers to stake out a small position, buying four September 10 calls for 0.69 with the stock trading around $8. Silver Wheaton subsequently moved sharply higher and is currently trading for around $10.24. The call options rose in value commensurately and were quoted yesterday at » Read the full article