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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
Friday’s short squeeze to 1016.00 left an unachieved rally target at 1019.25 that is still valid in theory. This hints of at least mild weakness to come, although there is no predicting Monday morning’s mood. If there is selling, it would not become threatening unless the low recorded on July 31 at 978.25 is exceeded to the downside. Night owls looking to get long Sunday using camouflage will need a choppy ascent that appears to struggle its way past the 1011.25 peak made on the way down on Friday. It is visible on the 3-minute chart.
Gold’s breach of a minor midpoint support at 958.00 om Friday implies moderate weakness down to as low as 948.70 over the near term. That’sa Hidden Pivot support, and it should be viewed as a low-risk buying opportunity. Bid there with a 947.90 stop-loss if the chance arises. Alternatively, a pop above 961.30 would create a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts, turning the minor trend back to bullish. ______- UPDATE (1:06 p.m.): The futures overshot the support, hinting of more weakness down to the July 31 low, 933.80. Alternatively, it would now take a print at 968.10 to turn the hourly chart bullish.
Crude quotes have risen 65 percent from last winter’s lows near $44, but all of the action has taken place beneath a key resistance peak at 77.42 recorded just after Halloween. That’s the number to beat, but until it happens we should regard the effort as no more than a strong bear rally. More immediately, there’s a key midpoint support — formerly resistance — at 65.36 that we can use as a minimum objective for a pullback from these levels. It would be invalidated by a print above 72.84.
Goldman is in crucial territory, having narrowly failed on its last thrust to reach a 173.10 target we’ve been using for quite a while. The stock also failed to surpass a 172.45 peak made eleven months ago, thereby squandering an opportunity to refresh the bullish trend on the daily and weekly charts. These signs will become more worrisome still if the stock extends its losing streak today by falling beneath yet another low on the hourly chart at 161.30.
We hold the September 10-August 10 calendar spread four times for an effective CREDIT of 0.90. Let’s try to leg out of it for at least 0.50, first by bidding 0.15, day order, to cover the short August calls. If the order fills, offer the September calls to close for 0.65, good-till-canceled. If we are able to exit the spread for our price, our paper gain on the position would be $560.
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SIDE BETS for Monday
Da Boyz have goosed the dollar exuberantly Sunday night, creating bullish impulse legs on all of the intraday charts, though not yet on the daily. That would take a print at 80.90, although bears are already on the run because of where the rally originated — i.e., from a whipsaw low that fell just beneath last December’s watershed bottom at 77.69.
The futures are in limbo between a midpoint HP support at 14.500 and a midpoint HP resistance at 14.915, and whichever is exceeded first on a closing basis is likely to determine the short-term outlook.
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Is Wall Street Ready for Obama’s Fall?
by Rick Ackerman on August 10, 2009 2:15 am GMT · 22 comments
The stock market’s powerful bear rally, now five month’s old, has fed on false hopes and delusional thinking, but it is unlikely to survive the coming collapse of the Obama presidency. Mr. Obama’s once-overwhelming popularity, though ebbing, has so far survived the voters’ growing discontent with his policies. However, disapproval is mounting, even on the political left, and it’s going to reach critical mass once the president’s ill-conceived plan for a government takeover of the healthcare system has gone down in flames. He will become a lame-duck president after less than a year in office, » Read the full article