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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
The futures looked bound for 15.135 when the regular session ended yesterday. That’s a ‘D’ target of an uptrend whose sibling midpoint lies at 14.630, exactly 2.5 cents above Wednesday’s high. The latter number can serve as a minimum upside objective for Thursday, but if it’s exceeded on the close or by more than eight cents intraday, take it as a sign that the higher resistance will be achieved.
Seven consecutive days of gratuitous slop have left me no handholds for a meaty forecast, but 1023.50 would be my stab-in-the-dark for the top of whatever rally DaBoyz may be cooking up. Alternatively, any attempt to project a downside target is stymied by would-be impulse legs that break too many rules, even on the very lesser charts.
With Silver Wheaton stealing up on $10 and expiration a little more than a week away, our calendar spread will be an increasingly easy sale for 0.50. Yesterday the August 10 calls that we must cover traded as low as 0.11, so from here on out I’d suggest paying no more than 0.05 to close them out as long as the stock is 9.75 or lower. We hold four Sep 10 – Aug 10 call spreads for a 0.90 CREDIT, implying a paper gain of no less than $360. That sum would be augmented by the amount we receive for the calendar spreads.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Thursday
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SIDE BETS for Thursday
The Dollar Index turned heavy exactly 27 cents shy of a key peak at 79.66 recorded on July 29, hinting that there is not as much wattage behind this rally as we might have imagined a day earlier, after bulls racked up their third straight day of gains. Tradestation is choking and wheezing on my command to display an intraday chart for DXY, but I’ll provide further analysis if their tech support can resolve the issue by tomorrow.
Last week’s high at 27.70 fell well shy of a Hidden Pivot target at 28.74, so there’s still room for the Dollar Index to fall anew (it moves inversely with UDN). A two -day close above 27.53 would signal the likelihood of renewed weakness in the greenback, since that’s the midpoint pivot tied to the 28.74 target.
UNG pounded on the trendline flagged here yesterday, suggesting that it wants to go lower, perhaps to test the 12.32 bottom made on July 29. Alternatively, it would take a print at 13.00 to turn the lowly 15-minute chart bullish.
The weekly chart suggests upside potential over the next 3-4 weeks to as high s 3.1465. More immediately, a Hidden Pivot at 2.9745 can serve as a minimum upside objective, while anything below 2.7905 today would warn of further weakness.
I expect GOOG to hit 474.92 at the least, but if the stock can get comfortably above that midpoint pivot (on the weekly chart), its ‘D’ sibling at 553.87 would be in play.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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A Scenario to Trap Both Bulls and Bears…
by Rick Ackerman on August 13, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 1 comment
We offered an S&P 500 chart here a while back that was intended to show how a very powerful rally over the next 18 months would not change a long-term picture that remains very bearish to this day. The S&Ps were trading around 900 at the time, but we added 18 bars to the monthly chart in order to help readers visualize a steady, spectacular climb to 1400 by early 2010. We are much too bearish on the economy to think that such a powerful rally is in the cards. However, “thinking” about this market is not necessarily » Read the full article