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S&P Rally Nears a Key Benchmark

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:49 am GMT · 4 comments

We’ll know soon whether stocks are about to continue blithely higher, since the S&Ps are stealing up on an important Hidden Pivot target disseminated to Rick’s Picks subscribers a while back. Specifically, we projected a potentially important top in the September E-Mini S&P contract at exactly 1053.00. Yesterday, the futures got as close as 1044.00 before retreating slightly in after-hours trading.

Bear-rallies

The S&Ps and other broad indexes have now closed higher for five consecutive days, testing the resolve of bears while rewarding traders who have stayed with the bullish trend. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Just imagine…

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:15 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1040.50)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:56 am GMT

The 1053.00 target remains shortable, stop 1054.25, but because this number has been loudly drum-rolled, you shouldn’t expect it to work as precisely as we  have come to expect of E-Mini S&P targets derived from the hourly chart. Above 1053.00 the task of targeting becomes somewhat esoteric, but I’ll suggest using 1065.75 as the next possible plateau or top.  Note to Harry et al.:  The December contract target is 1048.25, and shorting there may be the way to avoid a traffic jam in the September futures.

HGZ09 – December Copper (Last:2.8945)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 2:45 am GMT

Copper has pulled back beneath a key midpoint cited here earlier, so boarding for a ride up to as high as 3.0695 will be trickier.  I’ll make this catch-as-catch can for experienced pivoteers only, since I cannot stay closely enough on top of this contract to provide a camouflage for entering.  The chart shows one way in which it might be attempted immediately, bottom-fishing at the c-d midpoint of a retracement pattern.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:174.87)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:08 am GMT

We hold four Jan 130-Oct 130 put spreads with an adjusted cost basis of 2.50. That number reflects a $360 profit we booked yesterday on a September 170 call we’d bought for $200. The gain seemed ambitious at the time — it represented a 6300% annualized profit(!!!!!), in newsletter-speak — but it is only after one cashes out of such a position that Goldman’s 192.91 potential smacks one in the eye. That’s where I now think the stock is headed if it closes above the 175.05 midpoint. Incidentally, the September 170 calls traded as low as 0.67 on September 2, with the stock around $159. Whoever sold them at that price must have forgotten that when Goldman shares are rampaging, they can easily climb $10 in just a few days. I won’t beat myself up for suggesting that you buy just one September 170 call, but the lesson learned is that Goldman is the horse you should bet on if you think a two or three-day decline in the market is likely to be recouped.

$YHOO – Yahoo! (Last:42.71)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2014 5:28 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:18.655)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2014 1:25 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:23.06)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 6:06 am GMT

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GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1237.60)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 5:50 am GMT

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17025)

by Rick Ackerman on September 12, 2014 12:01 am GMT

When a stock or an index takes a wicked dive, it often occurs after the particular vehicle has marginally exceeded some prior, significant peak. ‘Everyone’ turns bullish on the breakout, including bears prepared to cover on a hair-trigger signal, and that sets up the haymaker. Notice in the accompanying chart, however, that the record high recorded by the Dow on September 4 has led to no such plunge.  The high exceeded July’s record peak by 10 points, and that should have been enough to get bulls’ — and bears’ — juices flowing.  Instead, we’ve seen only a moderate pullback since then, leaving bears very much on the hook.  We could still see a collapse from these levels, particularly if there is unsettling news. But for the time being, bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high. We are short the Diamonds via some out-of-the-money put options just in case, but we may have to reshort if DIA breaks out to new highs. (Note: This tout is being written before Thursday’s close, since I will be away from the office later today.)

$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:113.11)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2014 1:29 am GMT

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$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:171.27)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:58 am GMT

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$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2562)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:279.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 3, 2014 5:30 am GMT

Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07.  This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled.  Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread.  We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.

+GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:37.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 2, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Friday

AAPL – Apple Inc. (Last: 172.56)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:12 am GMT

Immediate upside potential is to 177.18, a Hidden Pivot target where you can go short with a stop-loss as tight as 20-30 cents. If AAPL were to shred that resistance, we could be looking at 193.67 by mid-October.

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 16.825)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 4:02 am GMT

Keep in mind the 16.940 target in December Silver that was disseminated earlier. Any progress above this number would be a very bullish sign going forward, raising the bar to a maximum 18.350 over the next 10-12 weeks.


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