December 19th, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

S&P Rally Nears a Key Benchmark

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:49 am GMT · 4 comments

We’ll know soon whether stocks are about to continue blithely higher, since the S&Ps are stealing up on an important Hidden Pivot target disseminated to Rick’s Picks subscribers a while back. Specifically, we projected a potentially important top in the September E-Mini S&P contract at exactly 1053.00. Yesterday, the futures got as close as 1044.00 before retreating slightly in after-hours trading.

Bear-rallies

The S&Ps and other broad indexes have now closed higher for five consecutive days, testing the resolve of bears while rewarding traders who have stayed with the bullish trend. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Just imagine…

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:15 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1040.50)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:56 am GMT

The 1053.00 target remains shortable, stop 1054.25, but because this number has been loudly drum-rolled, you shouldn’t expect it to work as precisely as we  have come to expect of E-Mini S&P targets derived from the hourly chart. Above 1053.00 the task of targeting becomes somewhat esoteric, but I’ll suggest using 1065.75 as the next possible plateau or top.  Note to Harry et al.:  The December contract target is 1048.25, and shorting there may be the way to avoid a traffic jam in the September futures.

HGZ09 – December Copper (Last:2.8945)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 2:45 am GMT

Copper has pulled back beneath a key midpoint cited here earlier, so boarding for a ride up to as high as 3.0695 will be trickier.  I’ll make this catch-as-catch can for experienced pivoteers only, since I cannot stay closely enough on top of this contract to provide a camouflage for entering.  The chart shows one way in which it might be attempted immediately, bottom-fishing at the c-d midpoint of a retracement pattern.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:174.87)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:08 am GMT

We hold four Jan 130-Oct 130 put spreads with an adjusted cost basis of 2.50. That number reflects a $360 profit we booked yesterday on a September 170 call we’d bought for $200. The gain seemed ambitious at the time — it represented a 6300% annualized profit(!!!!!), in newsletter-speak — but it is only after one cashes out of such a position that Goldman’s 192.91 potential smacks one in the eye. That’s where I now think the stock is headed if it closes above the 175.05 midpoint. Incidentally, the September 170 calls traded as low as 0.67 on September 2, with the stock around $159. Whoever sold them at that price must have forgotten that when Goldman shares are rampaging, they can easily climb $10 in just a few days. I won’t beat myself up for suggesting that you buy just one September 170 call, but the lesson learned is that Goldman is the horse you should bet on if you think a two or three-day decline in the market is likely to be recouped.

$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2030.50)

by Rick Ackerman on December 18, 2014 6:51 am GMT

Volatility is getting pretty nasty, although that shouldn’t discourage us from trying to get a step ahead of these wild swings. That much was clear yesterday, when the S&Ps actually dipped 30 minutes into the session before exploding higher. The subsequent undulations and bullish lurches were driven by the timing of yesterday’s FOMC announcement late in the session, but it was never in doubt that the futures would work their way higher, if spasmodically, until the announcement came. For now, we’ll use the  2024.75 target shown as a minimum rally objective. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at the 2005.00 midpoint pivot, although I wouldn’t risk the implied six points that a “mechanical” entry would dictate. _______ UPDATE (8:42 a.m.): The trade would have worked spectacularly, since the futures touched an overnight low of  2004.50 before going into a ballistic, 31-point rally worth as much as $1500 per contract to anyone who bought as advised. An initial stop-loss as tight as three ticks would have sufficed to get you aboard.

$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1198.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 18, 2014 6:30 am GMT

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$USH15 – March T-Bonds (Last:145^02)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 5:29 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:22.06)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 4:03 am GMT

Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely.  I’m going to back up the truck myself — buying at either number or both, tightly stopped — and would do so not as a long-term play, but as a high-odds trade. Please note that although the 20.83 pivot has the potential to produce an important low, I’ve selected a chart that shows the alternative target at 17.30 so that you can judge for yourself how compelling it looks.  One further note:  Because yesterday’s plunge exceeded the previous bear-market low at 22.34 recorded on 11/5, it should have stopped out enough bulls to produce a spirited rally over the next day or two.  Under the circumstances, if such a rally fails to materialize, it would portend yet another wave of selling ahead. _____ UPDATE (December 17, 11:59 p.m.): Like gold futures, this vehicle rallied yesterday without quite reaching a downside target. That’s mildly bullish, but GDXJ will need to pop above 23.71 on Thursday to ‘actualize’ the encouraging start.

$CLF15 – January Crude (Last:53.98)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2014 4:15 am GMT

Crude is getting kicked again Sunday night, although the January NYMEX contract is trading 85 cents off its low at the moment. The so-far low is 56.25, but I would expect the futures to get closer to my 55.43 target (see inset) before they attempt to rally in earnest. Night owls can try bottom-fishing using ‘camouflage’ nevertheless, but if you want to use a simpler, albeit riskier, strategy, you can bid 55.43, stop 55.34 for a single contract. I have difficulty imagining significantly more sinkage without a bounce from somewhere near here, but if the stop gets schmeissed, the next logical stop on the way down would be at 53.45, or 50.69 if any lower. However robust the bounce, assuming one comes, my bear-market target is still $31. The economic world would be a very different place at that point, and I don’t mean in a good way. _______ UPDATE (December 15, 10:39 p.m.): The 55.43 pivot is holding so far on a closing basis, having been exceeded intraday by 0.41 points. That’s more than I would have expected, but I still think we’ll see a strong rally from here, or from very near these levels, since the target is so clear and compelling. If not, and the futures continue their relentless plunge, the targets given above, 53.45 and thence 50,69, will obtain. Traders with no position, or those who are managing the risk of a short position, should note that the January contract was in an uptrend late Monday night that projected to exactly 56.13. You can find this target on the 15-minute chart using the following coordinates: a=55.17 (12/15 at 4:45 p.m. EST); b= 55.85 (6:45 p.m.); and c=55.45 (8:10 p.m.). This pattern looks reliable enough that we should infer more upside to come if 56.13 is exceeded by more 10-15 cents. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 9:33 a.m.): Crude fell this morning to a newe multiyear low at 53.60, just 15 cents from the target given above. If you caught the 1.16 bounce from the low, you should have taken a partial profit and secured what remains with an ‘impulsive stop-loss’.  The bounce is less than I might have expected, and if the low gets taken out we’ll likely be looking at more slippage to 50.69.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher.


SIDE BETS for Friday

AAPL – Apple Inc. (Last: 172.56)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:12 am GMT

Immediate upside potential is to 177.18, a Hidden Pivot target where you can go short with a stop-loss as tight as 20-30 cents. If AAPL were to shred that resistance, we could be looking at 193.67 by mid-October.

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 16.825)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 4:02 am GMT

Keep in mind the 16.940 target in December Silver that was disseminated earlier. Any progress above this number would be a very bullish sign going forward, raising the bar to a maximum 18.350 over the next 10-12 weeks.


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