April 21st, 2014
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S&P Rally Nears a Key Benchmark

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:49 am GMT · 4 comments

We’ll know soon whether stocks are about to continue blithely higher, since the S&Ps are stealing up on an important Hidden Pivot target disseminated to Rick’s Picks subscribers a while back. Specifically, we projected a potentially important top in the September E-Mini S&P contract at exactly 1053.00. Yesterday, the futures got as close as 1044.00 before retreating slightly in after-hours trading.

Bear-rallies

The S&Ps and other broad indexes have now closed higher for five consecutive days, testing the resolve of bears while rewarding traders who have stayed with the bullish trend. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Just imagine…

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:15 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1040.50)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 12:56 am GMT

The 1053.00 target remains shortable, stop 1054.25, but because this number has been loudly drum-rolled, you shouldn’t expect it to work as precisely as we  have come to expect of E-Mini S&P targets derived from the hourly chart. Above 1053.00 the task of targeting becomes somewhat esoteric, but I’ll suggest using 1065.75 as the next possible plateau or top.  Note to Harry et al.:  The December contract target is 1048.25, and shorting there may be the way to avoid a traffic jam in the September futures.

HGZ09 – December Copper (Last:2.8945)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 2:45 am GMT

Copper has pulled back beneath a key midpoint cited here earlier, so boarding for a ride up to as high as 3.0695 will be trickier.  I’ll make this catch-as-catch can for experienced pivoteers only, since I cannot stay closely enough on top of this contract to provide a camouflage for entering.  The chart shows one way in which it might be attempted immediately, bottom-fishing at the c-d midpoint of a retracement pattern.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:174.87)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:08 am GMT

We hold four Jan 130-Oct 130 put spreads with an adjusted cost basis of 2.50. That number reflects a $360 profit we booked yesterday on a September 170 call we’d bought for $200. The gain seemed ambitious at the time — it represented a 6300% annualized profit(!!!!!), in newsletter-speak — but it is only after one cashes out of such a position that Goldman’s 192.91 potential smacks one in the eye. That’s where I now think the stock is headed if it closes above the 175.05 midpoint. Incidentally, the September 170 calls traded as low as 0.67 on September 2, with the stock around $159. Whoever sold them at that price must have forgotten that when Goldman shares are rampaging, they can easily climb $10 in just a few days. I won’t beat myself up for suggesting that you buy just one September 170 call, but the lesson learned is that Goldman is the horse you should bet on if you think a two or three-day decline in the market is likely to be recouped.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.89)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 5:25 am GMT

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$ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1861.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 3:39 am GMT

Late Sunday night, it’s anyone’s guess whether DaBoyz are fixing to run stops above the 1867.50 peak shown. That’s assuming there’s enough short-covering fear to pull it off, which appears not to be the case at the moment. Far more ambitious would be a push above the April 4 peak at 1892.50 to new all-time highs.  Assuming that’s about to happen, it’s highly doubtful it will be by way of an impulse leg that exceeds both of the peaks in a single, unpaused leap.  More likely is a push today above peak #1 that would probably spell death-by-Chinese-water-torture for shorts in the days ahead. In any event, your trading bias should be bullish above 1867.50, with entry based on whatever uptrending ABC ‘camouflage’ patterns you can find on charts of 15-minute degree or less. Keep in mind that the first such opportunity signaled, as opposed to one further along in the uptrend, would be the least risky to trade.

$GCM14 – June Gold (Last:1295.10)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 2:49 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^01)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week’s fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.

HGK14 – May Copper (Last:2.9820)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2014 12:20 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Friday

AAPL – Apple Inc. (Last: 172.56)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 3:12 am GMT

Immediate upside potential is to 177.18, a Hidden Pivot target where you can go short with a stop-loss as tight as 20-30 cents. If AAPL were to shred that resistance, we could be looking at 193.67 by mid-October.

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 16.825)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2009 4:02 am GMT

Keep in mind the 16.940 target in December Silver that was disseminated earlier. Any progress above this number would be a very bullish sign going forward, raising the bar to a maximum 18.350 over the next 10-12 weeks.


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