January 30th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition

by Rick Ackerman on September 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Two Exploration Stocks to Consider

[We often feature the work of our friend and colleague Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based investment consultant who specializes in mining companies. Below, he explains why it is time for those who have been straddling the fence to buy junior gold shares.  He concludes with two specific recommendations that trade over-the-counter for less than $1.]

Rick has asked me to write about gold with a focus on the junior mining companies, so here we go, along with a couple of specific recommendations. I tried to point out the pros and cons of buying the juniors last month, but let me now make a quick refresher. I also suggest that you go back to Rick’s August archives to review my articles on gold and the junior sector.

Advantages of juniors…

– They have been beaten down in price due to the credit squeeze last year….

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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might…

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Of Green Shoots and Broken Windows

Our memory stumbles whenever we try to recall any recent sightings of “green shoots” that would support the officially promoted illusion of a U.S. economy in recovery.  Actually, this vision is more of a hallucination than an illusion, since one’s mind needs to venture beyond the pale of rationality, light years beyond the fringe of statistical evidence, to conjure up supposed signs of sustainable growth. Does “recovery” square with the reality that you, personally, see all around you?  Indeed, whatever picture the government and the news media want us to see will be unconvincing at best, since a…

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Will Gold Be the Turd in G-20’s Punchbowl?

With a glower of contempt toward the bankers, gold remains easily aloft above $1000, developing thrust for the next big move. We wrote here a while back that blast-off from $1000 would follow the realization that G-20 can do nothing to restore stability to the world’s tottering financial system. Now, the question is whether anything at all will be “realized” in the wake of the Pittsburgh meeting. We hesitate to call it a summit because the event seems to have slipped off the news media’s radar.  Unable to recall the actual…

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Panicky Gold Sellers Find Safety Aboard Titanic

It’s a crazy world that views dollars and Treasury paper, of all things, as a safe haven whenever the financial news turns unsettling.  Yesterday’s upsetting story had sales of existing homes falling by 2.7% last month, darkening the mirage of recovery in the housing sector. Home sales had risen over the four previous months, but the distress buying that was driving this statistic appears to be drying up. Skittish traders lost no time connecting the dots, dumping gold and piling into dollar assets.  They evidently had…

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Thought for Today

Crude leading gold lower

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:46 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1043.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 3:59 am GMT

Yesterday’s inebriated swan dive came within two ticks of a two-day downtrend’s Day-Glo target (1040.50) on the hourly chart. The futures should go no lower than that Hidden Pivot if bulls are to maintain the appearance of being in charge.  However, if they do breach the support decisively, I’d put pivotry aside and use the 1025.50 low from August 13 as a minimum downside objective. Alternatively, a print at 1050.00 Thursday night or early Friday morning would turn the one-minute chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (11:40 a.m.):  The day so far has been spent playing Hidden Pivot toe-sies, with a high at 1049.50 and a low at 1039.75. Don’t expect much more today.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:993.70)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:23 am GMT

The corrective rally Thursday night promised to deliver no more than 1000.10 — and that was only if the Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 997.30 is exceeded. Promises sometimes get broken, though, and we should take it as a bullish sign if it happens here. However, it would take nothing less than 1009.40 to turn the lesser intraday charts decisively bullish. If we study Thursday’s tumult from the top of the 5-minute chart on down, we find a Hidden Pivot at 976.10 that can serve as a worst-case target for the near term.  And as always, price action at the (988.80) midpoint pivot will tell us whether our coordinates are the right ones. _______ UPDATE (11:44 a.m.): The futures have closely followed our script, topping in the wee hours at 1000.50, four ticks above where predicted.  The subsequent breach to the  downside of the 988.80 support is a bearish sign for the near term, but it would be counteracted by a print at 1001.70.

SIZ09 – Comex December Silver (Last:16.200)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:39 am GMT

Applying Lindsay’s rules straightforwardly, December Silver is entitled to a pullback into the range 15.120-16.645 before it embarks on another leg up.  The resumption of the bullish trend would be signaled by a booster-stage rally of at least $1.05 starting from anywhere within the given range.  The potential  for the move, measured from the low, would be $2.16

$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:22.25)

by Rick Ackerman on January 30, 2015 4:02 am GMT

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$+ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1888.75)

by Rick Ackerman on January 30, 2015 2:56 am GMT

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$TLT – 20+ Year Treasurys (Last:136.77)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 6:00 am GMT

I’ve been hell-of-bullish on Treasury Bonds for quite a while, but a subscriber asked me yesterday whether there was a price at which I would short them.  In fact, there are some major targets above where both T-Bond futures and this ETF vehicle would become enticing shorts. Specifically, I am using a 164^08 projection for T-Bond futures that lies 8.6% above the current 151^04; and in TLT, a 145.25 target that is 6.8% above current levels. Despite the discrepancy, I will treat each separately for trading purposes. and I’m also sticking with a 1.74% forecast for long-term interest rates. That projection is based on the long-term T-Bond chart itself, not on a derivative instrument such as TLT or TLH.  For your further trading guidance, let me repeat that I expect both TLT and TLH to pull back when the former hits 138.42, a Hidden Pivot resistance of intermediate importance that could be achieved within the next few days.

$+JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:39.02)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 5:07 am GMT

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$+CLH15 – March Crude (Last:44.52)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

The futures are banging on a 44.12 Hidden Pivot support that they last visited on January 13. We won’t presume as to whether the support will hold this time around, but if it gives way the 41.00 target of a lesser downtrend (see inset) would be in play. Traders will have to sort out the opportunities in real time, but I’d suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less to generate an actionable ‘camouflage’ pattern. If you prefer the simpler method of a ‘mechanical’ entry, a short from 46.36 can be used, stop 48.15.  This is significantly more risk that we are used to taking when trading this vehicle, since swing highs and lows on the very lesser charts can usually be predicted with 10 to 20 cents.  Under the circumstances, I’d suggest holding position size down to a single contract unless you use ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (1:42 p.m.): Just posted in the chat room: The recent high at 46.41 was bullishly impulsive, so shorts initiated at 46.36 as I’d advised should be tied to a short tether — i.e., a stop-loss that will leave you with at least a small profit no matter what. If you are short multiple contracts, half should be covered here for around 45.69, for a gain of about $670 per contract. If you prefer an impulsive stop, the 3-minute chart would pop you out of the trade on an uncorrected rally exceeding 46.14. _______ UPDATE (11:34 p.m.): The futures have plummeted $1.41 from within a nickel of where I’d suggested getting short.  The trade could have been worth as much $1360 per contract, but if you still hold a position I’ll recommend tying it to an impulsive stop-loss on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply stopping yourself out of the short if the futures thrust above 45.58 without correcting.  Please let me know in the chat room if you hold a position, since I can provide a tracking position for you further guidance.______ UPDATE (January 29, 9:44 p.m.): And still no change! The futures have continued to bang on the 44.12 ‘hidden’ support without breaking it decisively. If and when it gives way, look for a continuation of the bear market down to at least 41.00.

$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:26.60)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:01 am GMT

The rally begun in late December appears to be faltering, since the last two upthrusts failed to exceed some important ‘external’ peaks.  In healthy bull markets this is what we should expect, and it was in fact a feature of GDXJ’s rally until two weeks ago. On January 13, however, the culmination of a three-day upthrust produced a high at 29.63 that failed by 16 cents to exceed mid-November’s 29.78 peak. The stock subsequently pulled back for a day to get some running room, and although the rally that ensued was good for a 15% gain, at its high it failed by a whopping 25 cents to surpass an ‘external’ high at 30.98 recorded on October 28.  This is timid action at best, and it implies that bulls will either have to pick up the pace or take the path of least resistance and head lower. Most immediately, to get back into gear buyers would need to generate an explosive impulse leg exceeding early October’s 34.82 peak. Were that to occur, it would be persuasive on the matter of whether the rally is for real or just a flash-in-the-pan.  More immediately, GDXJ looks like it will correct down to at least 26.24, a Hidden Pivot support (15-min, a=30.14 on 1/22)  that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel. _______ UPDATE (January 29, 9:25 p.m.): Hidden Pivot supports aside, traders were obviously focused on the January 8 low at 25.91 as yesterday’s selloff unfolded.  This ’structural support’ held, but only by a nickel. Now, if it fails, that would add to the imputed power of the bearish impulse leg begun from Tuesday’s 29.50 high. The rosiest scenario we might envision would be for GDXJ to instead generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, a feat that would require a thrust to 30.15 over the next 2-3 days.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


SIDE BETS for Friday

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last: 182.89)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:28 am GMT

Goldman’s clawback propensity yesterday was fearsome, especially when you consider how very badly the stock needs to correct a 15-day run. If it pokes its greasy little snout above 185.60 today, bears had better be prepared to throw in the towel.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last: 403.78)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:42 am GMT

Relief may be near in the form of a Hidden Pivot support at 389.22, but it would be bearish, at least for the short term, if that number fails to hold.


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The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on Tuesday, February 17, 2015. For more information, or to register, click here.