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Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition

by Rick Ackerman on September 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Two Exploration Stocks to Consider

[We often feature the work of our friend and colleague Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based investment consultant who specializes in mining companies. Below, he explains why it is time for those who have been straddling the fence to buy junior gold shares.  He concludes with two specific recommendations that trade over-the-counter for less than $1.]

Rick has asked me to write about gold with a focus on the junior mining companies, so here we go, along with a couple of specific recommendations. I tried to point out the pros and cons of buying the juniors last month, but let me now make a quick refresher. I also suggest that you go back to Rick’s August archives to review my articles on gold and the junior sector.

Advantages of juniors…

– They have been beaten down in price due to the credit squeeze last year….

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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might…

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Of Green Shoots and Broken Windows

Our memory stumbles whenever we try to recall any recent sightings of “green shoots” that would support the officially promoted illusion of a U.S. economy in recovery.  Actually, this vision is more of a hallucination than an illusion, since one’s mind needs to venture beyond the pale of rationality, light years beyond the fringe of statistical evidence, to conjure up supposed signs of sustainable growth. Does “recovery” square with the reality that you, personally, see all around you?  Indeed, whatever picture the government and the news media want us to see will be unconvincing at best, since a…

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Will Gold Be the Turd in G-20’s Punchbowl?

With a glower of contempt toward the bankers, gold remains easily aloft above $1000, developing thrust for the next big move. We wrote here a while back that blast-off from $1000 would follow the realization that G-20 can do nothing to restore stability to the world’s tottering financial system. Now, the question is whether anything at all will be “realized” in the wake of the Pittsburgh meeting. We hesitate to call it a summit because the event seems to have slipped off the news media’s radar.  Unable to recall the actual…

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Panicky Gold Sellers Find Safety Aboard Titanic

It’s a crazy world that views dollars and Treasury paper, of all things, as a safe haven whenever the financial news turns unsettling.  Yesterday’s upsetting story had sales of existing homes falling by 2.7% last month, darkening the mirage of recovery in the housing sector. Home sales had risen over the four previous months, but the distress buying that was driving this statistic appears to be drying up. Skittish traders lost no time connecting the dots, dumping gold and piling into dollar assets.  They evidently had…

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TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Crude leading gold lower

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:46 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1043.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 3:59 am GMT

Yesterday’s inebriated swan dive came within two ticks of a two-day downtrend’s Day-Glo target (1040.50) on the hourly chart. The futures should go no lower than that Hidden Pivot if bulls are to maintain the appearance of being in charge.  However, if they do breach the support decisively, I’d put pivotry aside and use the 1025.50 low from August 13 as a minimum downside objective. Alternatively, a print at 1050.00 Thursday night or early Friday morning would turn the one-minute chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (11:40 a.m.):  The day so far has been spent playing Hidden Pivot toe-sies, with a high at 1049.50 and a low at 1039.75. Don’t expect much more today.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:993.70)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:23 am GMT

The corrective rally Thursday night promised to deliver no more than 1000.10 — and that was only if the Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 997.30 is exceeded. Promises sometimes get broken, though, and we should take it as a bullish sign if it happens here. However, it would take nothing less than 1009.40 to turn the lesser intraday charts decisively bullish. If we study Thursday’s tumult from the top of the 5-minute chart on down, we find a Hidden Pivot at 976.10 that can serve as a worst-case target for the near term.  And as always, price action at the (988.80) midpoint pivot will tell us whether our coordinates are the right ones. _______ UPDATE (11:44 a.m.): The futures have closely followed our script, topping in the wee hours at 1000.50, four ticks above where predicted.  The subsequent breach to the  downside of the 988.80 support is a bearish sign for the near term, but it would be counteracted by a print at 1001.70.

SIZ09 – Comex December Silver (Last:16.200)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:39 am GMT

Applying Lindsay’s rules straightforwardly, December Silver is entitled to a pullback into the range 15.120-16.645 before it embarks on another leg up.  The resumption of the bullish trend would be signaled by a booster-stage rally of at least $1.05 starting from anywhere within the given range.  The potential  for the move, measured from the low, would be $2.16

$NFLX – Netflix (Last:421.86)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:32 am GMT

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$+SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.71)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:16 am GMT

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$GCQ14 – August Gold (Last:1303.80)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:06 am GMT

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A major top?  It’s certainly conceivable, since the futures peaked last week within 1.25 points of a compelling rally target I’d spotlighted at 1984.50. Although this Hidden Pivot resistance looked very short-able, I have my doubts that it will stand for long as the all-time high. The target’s main value lay in its clarity, and in that respect it did not disappoint us.  As you can see (inset), bulls exceeded it by a mere inch before diving — so far — 22 points. Subscribers who used the target to get short should have covered at least half of any positions by Sunday night and deployed a generous trailing stop for what remains. If you prefer using a stop-loss based on impulse legs, put it at 1979.25, just above a small peak on the hourly chart that was recorded Friday on the way down.

As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss.  This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.)  Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already.  We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66.  Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.):  We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low  of the day, 42.40.  The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock.  We now hold 100 shares with an effective cost basis of 37.25.  For the time being we’ll let it run.

$+PCLN – Priceline (Last:1238.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 24, 2014 12:54 am GMT

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:114.32)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 5:36 am GMT

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$EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.34302)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 12:01 am GMT

I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

September E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:3965.00

by Rick Ackerman on July 15, 2014 4:21 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Friday

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last: 182.89)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:28 am GMT

Goldman’s clawback propensity yesterday was fearsome, especially when you consider how very badly the stock needs to correct a 15-day run. If it pokes its greasy little snout above 185.60 today, bears had better be prepared to throw in the towel.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last: 403.78)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:42 am GMT

Relief may be near in the form of a Hidden Pivot support at 389.22, but it would be bearish, at least for the short term, if that number fails to hold.


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