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Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition

by Rick Ackerman on September 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Two Exploration Stocks to Consider

[We often feature the work of our friend and colleague Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based investment consultant who specializes in mining companies. Below, he explains why it is time for those who have been straddling the fence to buy junior gold shares.  He concludes with two specific recommendations that trade over-the-counter for less than $1.]

Rick has asked me to write about gold with a focus on the junior mining companies, so here we go, along with a couple of specific recommendations. I tried to point out the pros and cons of buying the juniors last month, but let me now make a quick refresher. I also suggest that you go back to Rick’s August archives to review my articles on gold and the junior sector.

Advantages of juniors…

– They have been beaten down in price due to the credit squeeze last year….

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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might…

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Of Green Shoots and Broken Windows

Our memory stumbles whenever we try to recall any recent sightings of “green shoots” that would support the officially promoted illusion of a U.S. economy in recovery.  Actually, this vision is more of a hallucination than an illusion, since one’s mind needs to venture beyond the pale of rationality, light years beyond the fringe of statistical evidence, to conjure up supposed signs of sustainable growth. Does “recovery” square with the reality that you, personally, see all around you?  Indeed, whatever picture the government and the news media want us to see will be unconvincing at best, since a…

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Will Gold Be the Turd in G-20’s Punchbowl?

With a glower of contempt toward the bankers, gold remains easily aloft above $1000, developing thrust for the next big move. We wrote here a while back that blast-off from $1000 would follow the realization that G-20 can do nothing to restore stability to the world’s tottering financial system. Now, the question is whether anything at all will be “realized” in the wake of the Pittsburgh meeting. We hesitate to call it a summit because the event seems to have slipped off the news media’s radar.  Unable to recall the actual…

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Panicky Gold Sellers Find Safety Aboard Titanic

It’s a crazy world that views dollars and Treasury paper, of all things, as a safe haven whenever the financial news turns unsettling.  Yesterday’s upsetting story had sales of existing homes falling by 2.7% last month, darkening the mirage of recovery in the housing sector. Home sales had risen over the four previous months, but the distress buying that was driving this statistic appears to be drying up. Skittish traders lost no time connecting the dots, dumping gold and piling into dollar assets.  They evidently had…

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TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Crude leading gold lower

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:46 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1043.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 3:59 am GMT

Yesterday’s inebriated swan dive came within two ticks of a two-day downtrend’s Day-Glo target (1040.50) on the hourly chart. The futures should go no lower than that Hidden Pivot if bulls are to maintain the appearance of being in charge.  However, if they do breach the support decisively, I’d put pivotry aside and use the 1025.50 low from August 13 as a minimum downside objective. Alternatively, a print at 1050.00 Thursday night or early Friday morning would turn the one-minute chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (11:40 a.m.):  The day so far has been spent playing Hidden Pivot toe-sies, with a high at 1049.50 and a low at 1039.75. Don’t expect much more today.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:993.70)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:23 am GMT

The corrective rally Thursday night promised to deliver no more than 1000.10 — and that was only if the Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 997.30 is exceeded. Promises sometimes get broken, though, and we should take it as a bullish sign if it happens here. However, it would take nothing less than 1009.40 to turn the lesser intraday charts decisively bullish. If we study Thursday’s tumult from the top of the 5-minute chart on down, we find a Hidden Pivot at 976.10 that can serve as a worst-case target for the near term.  And as always, price action at the (988.80) midpoint pivot will tell us whether our coordinates are the right ones. _______ UPDATE (11:44 a.m.): The futures have closely followed our script, topping in the wee hours at 1000.50, four ticks above where predicted.  The subsequent breach to the  downside of the 988.80 support is a bearish sign for the near term, but it would be counteracted by a print at 1001.70.

SIZ09 – Comex December Silver (Last:16.200)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:39 am GMT

Applying Lindsay’s rules straightforwardly, December Silver is entitled to a pullback into the range 15.120-16.645 before it embarks on another leg up.  The resumption of the bullish trend would be signaled by a booster-stage rally of at least $1.05 starting from anywhere within the given range.  The potential  for the move, measured from the low, would be $2.16

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:100.57)

by Rick Ackerman on August 21, 2014 3:16 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.20)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2014 4:59 am GMT

Subscribers are working two bullish calendar spreads (x16), but I would suggest increasing the size of the position if TLT corrects down to the 115.18 target  shown.   For now , we are long September 20 118 calls against short August 19 118 calls that we will roll into August 29 calls this Thursday and Friday.  We’ve already done the roll twice, reducing the cost basis of the spread to 0.04. This week’s roll will entail covering (buying back) the short calls and shorting a like number of August 29 calls, effectively selling the August 22 118/August 29 118 calendar spread.

It was marked on Tuesday at 0.17, off a 0.26 offer, but any price higher than 0.04 will effectively turn the position we’ll have  – long the Sept 20 118/August 29 118 calendar — into a credit spread.  This means we can’t lose – will make a profit no matter what TLT does.  Ideally, come September 20 , TLT will be sitting at 118, our spread will be trading for around 0.50, and we’ll be carrying it for a credit of perhaps 0.50.  The imputed profit would be  $1600 — not bad, considering our risk is already close to zero.

My long-term outlook for T-Bonds is very bullish, a view that goes sharply against a consensus which clings to the belief that interest rates – and the stock market — can only go up.  That is a bet we should be eager to fade. We may have a chance to do so at still better odds if T-Bonds continue to  sell off  on the manufactured idea that the Jackson Hole conference will open the floodgates for more stimulus and inflation. _______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m.):  The Sep 20/Aug xx calendar spread is recommended at this point only for those who did the original spread, since there’s not enough time left on it to roll its cost basis down to zero or less (i.e., a credit). If you are new to the spread, try buying the Nov 20/August 29 calendar for 0.90 with TLT trading around 115.80.  The spread has a delta value of 0.20, implying that being long one spread is equivalent to being long 20 shares of stock.  This means that, using a spread price of 0.90 as a benchmark, you should adjust the price you pay for it by one penny, up or down, for each 5 cents that TLT moves away from 115.80.

$SIU14 – September Silver (Last:19.615)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 2:02 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:168.82)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 1:50 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.58)

by Rick Ackerman on August 7, 2014 4:58 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Friday

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last: 182.89)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:28 am GMT

Goldman’s clawback propensity yesterday was fearsome, especially when you consider how very badly the stock needs to correct a 15-day run. If it pokes its greasy little snout above 185.60 today, bears had better be prepared to throw in the towel.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last: 403.78)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2009 4:42 am GMT

Relief may be near in the form of a Hidden Pivot support at 389.22, but it would be bearish, at least for the short term, if that number fails to hold.


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