Yesterday’s bullish forecast and target worked well enough for at least one subscriber, Phil D., to make money while he slept: “Bought three minis below 1010 with a stop below your C-point before going to bed, got up this morning and saw we’d bounced just a hair over 1022, so I sold 2 at 1018+. Not a bad return on sleeping. Given the low risk, it seems I should have bought more. Keep looking for that camouflage!” And so we shall, since the immediate forecast still calls for a rally to at least 1074. As of 10:51 p.m., a camouflage “alert” was in effect, since the abc retracement highlighted in the chart failed to reach its ”d’ target (or even its midpoint pivot). When this occurs, the first impulse leg headed in the opposite direction is the one we should look for to help us enter almost risklessly with the trend. So far, however, none of the minor rallies this evening have exceeded the required two peaks.
From the monthly archives:
September 2009
Late Wednesday night, the futures were playing toe-sies with a Hidden Pivot rally target at 9794 (see chart). The actual high so far is 9793, and it could go either way. Notice that I have used, not the one-off ‘A’ here, but the obvious one. That’s because I needed to project the highest target possible from the existing pattern. If it is exceeded, we’ll have to move up to the daily chart to find a rally pattern yet to play out. The most obvious one, going back to the March low, yields a bear rally objective of 10431.
Yesterday’s high fell a nickel shy of an 11.93 target that leaps to the eye from the hourly chart. If UNG should exceed that number on a closing basis, however, expect buyers to take it higher, to at least 12.45.
This tout will officially correct a downside target by a small amount, to 75.47.As noted in today’s commentary, I expect DXY to fall to that number and then to rally for a spell before plunging anew to 72.93. If the higher target is reached around the same time December Gold is hitting 1074, consider that a warning to lighten up on precious metals.
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Let me reiterate that, with Goldman presumably bound for at least 192.91, any pullback that lines up with Hidden Pivots is a speculative buy. Yesterday, for instance, I’d flagged a major midpoint support at 175.05 where you might have considered doing so. However, the actual low of a nasty swoon on the opening was 175.46. Although, with Goldman in such a strong uptrend, we should expect pullbacks to fall shy of their targets, we can still catch the turns — and trade them — using camouflage. Our edge yesterday lay in “knowing” that the correction would reverse from within spitting distance of the midpoint pivot.
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Looks like a minimum 1022.00 from here, enroute to a bigger-picture target at 1074.00 that I have more or less promised. I won’t try to split hairs with chat-roomers who have been monitoring gold’s every heartbeat, every microtrend, but I will pitch in with whatever camouflage entry opportunities may crop up (as one did yesterday morning). There’s another in progress at this very moment (albeit with a caveat), as you can see in the accompanying chart. Notice how Tuesday’s high fell between the two labeled peaks to the left.
Dollar’s Next Rally Looks Doomed
by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 4:22 am GMT · 5 comments
Here are two numbers to jot down if you’re interested in gold and the U.S. dollar: 75.47 and 72.93. Those are our current downside targets for the NYBOT Dollar Index, and we are quite confident that both will be reached in the fullness of time. The first lies just 1% below yesterday’s settlement price of 76.28; the second, 4.3% below it. Like you, we’ve heard many compelling arguments from dollar bulls and bears. Some think it is about to turn very strong, while others see a collapse. Our gut feeling is that the bulls will be right, » Read the full article